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90S.Bransby 罕見春季高緯副熱帶低壓

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-10-5 09:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2016-10-7 18:11 編輯

  副熱帶低壓  
編號:02-20162017 (90S)
名稱:Bransby

  基本資料  
命名日期  :2016 10 05 08
停編日期  :2016 10 07 00

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速:50 kt
海平面最低氣壓:988 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  

SWI_20162017.png
Bransby.png

以上資料來自:MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-10-5 09:54 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2016-10-5 09:57 編輯

WTIO30 FMEE 050042

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20162017
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BRANSBY)

2.A POSITION 2016/10/05 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.7 S / 43.6 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 740 SW: 460 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 560 SW: 280 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/10/05 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2016/10/06 00 UTC: 30.2 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2016/10/06 12 UTC: 31.9 S / 45.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
DURING THE LAST DAYS, A BAROCLINIC LOW FORMED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. SINCE YESTERDAY, THIS LOW STARTED TO GAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, WHILE MOVING UNDER THE TROUGH, AVOIDING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OVER THE LAST HOURS, DRIVEN BY THE COLD UPPER AIR AND THE ACTIVE PHASE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ON SEA, DEEP CONVECTION GOT STRONGER NEAR THE CENTER, HELPING BUILDING A SHALLOW WARM CORE. A WARM SPOT IS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE LAST IMAGERY. MOREOVER, LAST ASCAT SWATH (1823Z) SHOW A 35KT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMAL WINDS NEAR THE CORE. THUS, MALAGASY WEATHER SERVICE, NAMED THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION BRANSBY AT 00Z.

THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING WEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS AREA. BRANSBY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION UP TO TONIGHT, AND THEN GO EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW TROUGH AT SOUTH-WEST. MAIN MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.

ON THIS TRACK, BRANSBY IS UNLIKELY TO UNDERGO A COMPLETE TROPICAL TRANSITION, WITH COLD WATERS REMAINING AROUND 20C. A SHORT PERIOD FOR DEEPENING STILL EXISTS TODAY, THANKS TO A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LATE NIGHT CONVECTIVE THRUSTS. BUT FROM TOMORROW, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE IN A LESS CONDUCIVE UPPER ENVIRONMENT (NORTH- WESTERLY CONSTRAINT), WHICH MAY CAUSE A RAPID DISORGANIZATION AND DISSIPATION OF THE LOW BY FRIDAY.
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劉瑞益@FB|2016-10-6 07:20 | 顯示全部樓層
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Meow|2016-10-6 13:00 | 顯示全部樓層
Aqua擷取10月5日馬達加斯加南南西方副熱帶低壓Bransby。

Bransby 2016-10-05 1055Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-10-05_1055Z.jpg
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Meow|2016-10-7 19:07 | 顯示全部樓層
Terra擷取10月6日馬達加斯加以南巔峰中的副熱帶低壓Bransby。

Bransby 2016-10-06 0720Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-10-06_0720Z.jpg
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kibishi0515|2016-10-8 23:52 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
根據英文維基百科條目,此系統似乎已在10月7日併入鋒面,並實際上亦已停止編號
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