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28W 發展不佳

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-11-10 04:49 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-11-10 05:10 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-11-10 09:39 | 顯示全部樓層
ecmwf_mslp_uv850_fe_11.png ecmwf_z500_mslp_fe_11.png


EC最新一報看好發展
副高剛好重新西伸增強
96朝西移動至菲律賓附近..




點評

越來越不相信機構,米雷騙很大  發表於 2016-11-10 22:11
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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-11-10 16:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 0530Z發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 100530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 170.7E TO 11.9N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 170.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 171.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY
185NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN.  ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WELL DEFINED CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.  A MHS
100257Z MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN
FROM THE WESTERN SIDE.  RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY REVEALS A MORE
PRONOUNCED WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KTS OF WIND.  UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.  DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE LIMITED DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110530Z.
//
NNNN

wp9616.gif

96W_tracks_latest.png

點評

露絲就不錯了  發表於 2016-11-10 19:52
按這條路徑走 有機會海燕再現嗎?  發表於 2016-11-10 18:48
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-11-11 11:34 | 顯示全部樓層
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簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-11-11 18:51 | 顯示全部樓層
20161111.0540.himawari-8.vis.28W.TWENTYEIGH.30kts.1000mb.9.8N.163.7E.100pc.jpg 20161111.0716.f17.91pct91h91v.28W.TWENTYEIGH.30kts.1007mb.9.5N.162.2E.085pc.jpg wp282016.20161111074112.gif

對流散亂...
幾乎沒有深層對流能不能順利發展起來還是個問題




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簽到天數: 1988 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-11-12 11:33 | 顯示全部樓層
28W_gefs_latest.png 20161112.0230.himawari-8.vis.28W.TWENTYEIGH.25kts.1009mb.9N.157.4E.100pc.jpg wp282016.20161112030524.gif

還是沒有太大變化
要走到菲律賓附近時才有機會發展起來
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簽到天數: 2088 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2016-11-12 16:33 | 顯示全部樓層
因為遲遲發展不起來,09z JTWC發布28W的最後一報
wp2816.gif

28W_120600sams.jpg




點評

可能會將評級降至LOW或MEDIUM  發表於 2016-11-12 18:08
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY WITHIN 12 HOURS, LET ALONE 48 HOURS AT BEST. JTWC認為最快48小時有機會重新發展。  發表於 2016-11-12 18:07
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