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93S 減弱消散

簽到天數: 1786 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-11-10 20:53 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2016-11-18 11:10 編輯

  基本資料  
編號    :93 S
擾動編號日期:2016 11 10 20
撤編日期  :2016 11 18 10
93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4.4S.69E

20161110.1200.meteo-7.ircolor.93S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4.4S.69E.100pc.jpg

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alu
好像也撤編了  發表於 2016-11-16 18:30

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-11-12 02:57 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 評級" MEDIUM."

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.4S 69.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.9S 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION FLARING NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). AN 111359Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH OF THE LLCC, WITH DISTINCT BANDING WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. AN 110425Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD BUT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH BEGINNING
TO WRAP IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abiosair (1).jpg


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-11-14 12:19 | 顯示全部樓層
補充Low評級
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4S
69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101358Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS SITTING IN AN AREA OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE MIXED, WITH
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abiosair_1110.jpg

數值預測將一路沿南緯8度向西移動
93S_gefs_latest.png

20161114.0400.meteo-7.ircolor.93S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.7.6S.59.2E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-11-17 23:07 | 顯示全部樓層
latestSI.png

已經移動到非洲東部近岸
走了將近30個經度

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alu
好奇怪,這擾動在JTWC網站看,一下有一下又消失了  發表於 2016-11-17 23:13
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2016-11-17 23:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 alu 於 2016-11-17 23:19 編輯

這是現在在JTWC網站看見的,另一個是天氣圖表下的熱帶系統看見的
abiosair.jpg
latestSI.png
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