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22E(16L).Otto 少見由大西洋跨洋至東太的熱帶氣旋

簽到天數: 1786 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2016-11-15 20:37 | 顯示全部樓層
  二級颶風  
編號:16 L22 E
名稱:Otto
22E(16L).png

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2016 11 15 20
命名日期  :2016 11 22 02
撤編日期  :2016 11 28 01
登陸地點  :尼加拉瓜

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速:95 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓:975 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
TWTYBBS_16L(22E)_OTTO_TRACK_t02436_TWTYBBS.png

  討論帖圖片  
90L.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.11.5N.77.5W

20161115.1215.goes-13.vis.1km.90L.INVEST.20kts.1009mb.11.5N.77.5W.100pc.jpg

NHC:10%
1. A large area cloudiness and thunderstorms is associated with a
broad low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow
development of this disturbance during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week or over the
weekend while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent two_atl_2d1.png

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +25 +1 收起 理由
wear0522 + 10 不錯
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 3138 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-11-19 16:56 | 顯示全部樓層
未命名.png

Tina撤編後 洋面上只剩下90L
OHC很低 強度發展方面一直不被看好
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簽到天數: 2559 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-11-21 14:19 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC提升評級至High
two_atl_2d1.png

美國海軍亦發布TCFA
al902016.gif

未來將穿越尼加拉瓜
90L_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 2559 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-11-21 17:10 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z升格16L,巔峰上望颶風。
000
WTNT41 KNHC 210859
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
400 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016

The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized over
the past 12 hours, including the development of some banding
features. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft yesterday
between 1900-2000 UTC indicated that the low had a well-defined
circulation center, along with flight-level winds of 38 kt and SFMR
surface winds of 32-34 kt in no-rain areas. Since that time, an
intense convective burst with cloud tops of -88C developed near the
center between 0400-0500 UTC, which likely helped to spin up the
inner-core circulation a little more. In addition, ship C6VG7
located 90-100 nmi southeast of the center has been reporting winds
as high 38 kt at an elevation of 34 meters, which adjusts to a
10-meter wind of 30-32 kt. Although cloud tops have warmed since
that earlier strong convective burst occurred, the overall
convective cloud pattern has improved since the recon flight
yesterday. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system
as a 30-kt depression, which could be conservative.

The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the
past 12 hours or so, and little motion is expected today and early
Tuesday while the cyclone remains trapped within a blocking ridge
pattern. By 36-48 hours, an east-west oriented ridge is forecast by
the global models to develop across the Greater Antilles and the
Bahamas, which is expected to nudge the depression in a slow
westward direction for the remainder of the forecast period, with
landfall possibly occuring after 72 hours. The system is expected to
move across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific by
120 hours as a remnant low. The NHC official forecast track lies
close to the various consensus model forecasts.

Marginal environmental conditions are only expected to support slow
strengthening for the next 36 hours or so. After that, the moderate
vertical wind shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to
decrease to less than 10 kt while mid-level humidity values increase
to more than 70 percent. This should allow for the depression to
strengthen into a hurricane by 72 hours before landfall occurs. By
96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be inland over Central America
and undergoing rapid weakening due to the interaction with the
mountainous terrain of that region. The intensity forecast closely
follows the consensus intensity model IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 11.5N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  21/1800Z 11.4N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  22/0600Z 11.4N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 11.4N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  23/0600Z 11.3N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  24/0600Z 11.3N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  25/0600Z 11.3N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  26/0600Z 11.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

090409W_sm.gif

rb0.gif

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簽到天數: 3138 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

s6815711|2016-11-21 18:11 | 顯示全部樓層
2016AL16_OHCNFCST_201611210600.GIF

天阿 還要停留在原地約1天半的時間
一直要到3天後才有變快的趨勢
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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-11-22 02:33 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 命名"Otto" 強度上望cat.1  逐漸接近中美洲 ..
000
WTNT41 KNHC 211756
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016
100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016

This is a special advisory to report that Tropical Depression
Sixteen has strengthened.  Visible satellite imagery shows that the
inner core has become better defined over the past few hours, and
ASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 45
kt.  Additional intensification is expected, and Otto could become a
hurricane in 48 hours, or sooner.

No change has been made to the initial position or track forecast
from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1800Z 11.5N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch
175734W5_NL_sm.gif rbtop-animated.gif


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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-11-22 23:12 | 顯示全部樓層
由於發展優於預期,NHC看好以TS強度進入太平洋,為1996年以後首次。

144223W_sm.gif

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 10.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 10.4N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 10.6N  80.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 10.8N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 10.8N  82.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 10.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  26/1200Z 10.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  27/1200Z  9.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
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簽到天數: 1911 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-11-24 22:38 | 顯示全部樓層
登陸前爆發
低層結構還不錯~
20161124.1154.f17.91pct91h91v.16L.OTTO.95kts.975mb.11N.82.9W.095pc.jpg al162016.20161124085946.gif
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