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11L.Irma 橫颳大西洋 逐漸消亡

簽到天數: 969 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

kbty245|2017-9-9 02:12 | 顯示全部樓層
新一輪實測

風速開始回升

000
URNT12 KNHC 081719
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL112017
A. 08/16:38:30Z
B. 21 deg 53 min N
  075 deg 40 min W
C. 700 mb 2463 m
D. 137 kt
E. 042 deg 23 nm
F. 133 deg 138 kt
G. 042 deg 24 nm
H. 928 mb
I. 9 C / 3044 m
J. 20 C / 3050 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2111A IRMA               OB 16
MAX FL WIND 138 KT 042 / 24 NM 16:27:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 160 / 6 KT

眼牆換置已經完成了

開始重新衝擊Cat.5

recon_AF304-2111A-IRMA_timeseries.png


recon_AF304-2111A-IRMA.png


從古巴的雷達也可觀察到底層結構


cmwMAXw01a.gif

gpdMAXw01a.gif

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會不會下一報重回c5  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-9-9 05:55
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簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2017-9-9 04:25 | 顯示全部樓層
9月8日颶風艾瑪籠罩土克凱可群島與巴哈馬群島
Irma 2017-09-08 0636Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Irma_2017-09-08_0636Z.jpg

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我看到Dvorak衛星雲圖上結構好像之比前好  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-9-9 08:29
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[LV.3]偶爾看看II

Meranti|2017-9-9 05:52 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
蜜露 發表於 2017-9-8 19:09
艾瑪颶風是非常強的五級颶風 ,
上一次影響佛羅里達的五級颶風是1992年
正好是25年前.

這場景已經可以拍災難片了,片名可以取Irma
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簽到天數: 11 天

[LV.3]偶爾看看II

Meranti|2017-9-9 05:55 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
kbty245 發表於 2017-9-9 02:12
新一輪實測

風速開始回升

會不會下一報重回c5

點評

Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity 201709090000 22.1 -77.2 140 201709081800 22 -76.0 135 201709081200 21.8 -74.7 130 201709080600 21.5 -73.2 140 201709080000 21.1 -71.8 150 201  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-9-9 09:47
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簽到天數: 11 天

[LV.3]偶爾看看II

Meranti|2017-9-9 08:29 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
Meow 發表於 2017-9-9 04:25
9月8日颶風艾瑪籠罩土克凱可群島與巴哈馬群島

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Irma_2017-09-08_ ...

我看到Dvorak衛星雲圖上結構好像之比前好
bd_lalo-animated.gif
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簽到天數: 1825 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

typhoonman|2017-9-9 09:47 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 typhoonman 於 2017-9-9 10:12 編輯
Meranti 發表於 2017-9-9 05:55
會不會下一報重回c5

Synoptic Time         Latitude Longitude Intensity
201709090000         22.1         -77.2         140
201709081800         22.0         -76.0         135
201709081200         21.8         -74.7         130
201709080600         21.5         -73.2         140
201709080000         21.1         -71.8         150
201709071800         20.7         -70.4         150
201709071200         20.1         -69.0         150
201709070600         19.7         -67.7         155
201709070000         19.1         -66.0         160
201709061800         18.5         -64.7         160
201709061200         18.1         -63.3         160
201709060600         17.7         -61.9         160
201709060000         17.2         -60.4         160
201709051800         16.9         -59.2         160
201709051200         16.7         -57.8         155
201709050600         16.6         -56.4         125
201709050000         16.7         -55.1         120
201709041800         16.7         -53.9         115
201709041200         16.8         -52.6         105
201709040600         17.0         -51.7         100
201709040000         17.3         -50.4         100
201709031800         17.8         -49.2         100
201709031200         17.8         -47.9         100
201709030600         18.2         -46.9         95
201709030000         18.4         -45.6         95
201709021800         18.7         -44.0         95
201709021200         18.9         -42.5         95
201709020600         19.1         -41.1         100
201709020000         19.1         -39.8         105
201709011800         18.8         -38.5         100
201709011200         18.3         -37.2         95
201709010600         18.0         -36.0         100
201709010000         17.5         -35.1         100
201708311800         17.1         -34.3         100
201708311200         16.7         -33.4         75
201708310600         16.4         -32.4         60
201708310000         16.3         -31.8         55
201708301800         16.3         -30.7         45
201708301200         16.4         -29.8         40

最新資料已回至基本140KTS五級颶風標準了。
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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-9-9 11:19 | 顯示全部樓層
03Z報重回C5,只不過不小心走偏西太多,有半顆風眼已經進入古巴。
NHC持續認為將開始轉西北方向移動,登陸古巴與否將決定著Irma將以何種強度登陸美國...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 090259
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has
re-intensified to category 5 strength.  The plane measured a
maximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in
the northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140
kt.
  The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all
quadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be
35 n mi wide.

Apparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than
expected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.
The track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning
west-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to
the north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours.  After that time,
Irma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate
after 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and
then into Georgia.  Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from
its westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted
slightly westward.  Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to
the west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint
exactly where the center might move onshore.

If the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move
inland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not
lose much intensity during the next day or so.  As we've stated
many times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36
hours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.
After 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may
increase over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is
anticipated at that time.  Because of the concerns in the track
forecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong
intensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the
west Florida coast.  Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a
dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west
coast of Florida through 48 hours.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,
and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast
of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.

2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind
impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the
center.

3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the
southwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of
inundation above ground level is possible in this area.  This is a
life-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all
actions to protect life and property from rising water and follow
evacuation instructions from local officials.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida
peninsula through Tuesday night.  Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South
Carolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some
mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  All areas
seeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding
and flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 22.1N  77.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 22.6N  79.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 23.3N  80.6W  135 KT 155 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 24.5N  81.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 26.5N  81.9W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
72H  12/0000Z 31.6N  83.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
96H  13/0000Z 35.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  14/0000Z 35.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

214634_5day_cone_with_line.png

20170909.0202.metopb.89rgb.11L.IRMA.140kts.924mb.22.1N.77.2W.085pc.jpg

recon_AF308-2411A-IRMA.png

recon_AF308-2411A-IRMA_timeseries.png

NacComp200Km.gif

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-9-9 11:38 | 顯示全部樓層
15151.PNG

要進去了
天佑古巴..
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