Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 210855 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE {[1001HPA]} WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.6S
AND 161.8E AT 210600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTH AND EAST OF
SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.9S 163.8E, APPROXIMATELY 650NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
211605Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AMPLE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 95P IS UNDER MODERATE-HIGH
(20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND
WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
CIRCULATION TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST, BUT ARE SPLIT ON THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE THE ONLY 00Z MODELS
DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM, PREDICTING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
WTPS21 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 163.8E TO 17.3S 161.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 163.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INV 95P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 560NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
CONSOLODATE AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 222253Z BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF 25KT
WINDS, WITH A SMALLER REGION OF 30KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST CREATING GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT AT 28 CELSIUS BUT BECOME UNFAVORABLE
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT ON
THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT AS 95P MAKES A CURVING TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH THE UKMO AND JGSM DISSENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240230Z.//
NNNN
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 222334 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.9S AND
163.8E AT 222100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
VIS/IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ABOUT THE NORTH AND EAST OF
SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 231346 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S 162.4E
AT 231200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR EIR HIMAWARI-8 IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD11F MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AROUND THE LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS
UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWEST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240000 UTC 14.8S 161.4E MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241200 UTC 16.1S 160.8E MOV SSW AT 08KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 17.1S 160.3E MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 18.2S 160.3E MOV S AT 05 T WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 232000 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 232005 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IRIS CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 163.0E AT
231800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
THUS, YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 15.6S 162.0E MOV SW AT 08 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 16.6S 161.4E MOV SSW AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 17.7S 161.1E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 18.8S 161.1E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON IRIS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
240200 UTC.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0758UTC 24 MARCH 2018
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Iris was centred within 45 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal two south (14.2S)
longitude one hundred and fifty nine decimal eight east (159.8E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 997 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 35 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots by 0600 UTC 25
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 90 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 50 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 40 nautical miles in NW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.
Forecast positions
At 1800 UTC 24 March: Within 55 nautical miles of 15.4 south 159.1 east
Central pressure 995 hPa.
Winds to 35 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 25 March: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.4 south 158.7 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 30 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.
Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 24 March 2018.
Updated Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 12:38 am EST on Sunday 25 March 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 27 March 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
None.
Potential Cyclones:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris is located well to the south of the Solomon Islands and is expected to move to the south-southwest over the eastern Coral Sea through Sunday, before likely turning south-southeast on Monday.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris is only expected to have a low chance of re-developing into a tropical cyclone over the next few days. Regardless of development, the system is expected to remain over the eastern Coral Sea and poses no direct threat to Queensland.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Low
Monday:Low
Tuesday:Low
提升卡
千斤頂
