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14E.Lane 實測猛爆上C5 中太12年最強颶風

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[LV.5]常住居民I

傳奇@天氣人|2018-8-19 15:45 來自手機 | 顯示全部樓層
t02436 發表於 2018-8-19 14:02
進入中太,CPHC第一報給115節。

有機會可以前進西太

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字數未滿20字請善用點評功能唷,手機板的可用chrome瀏覽器跳電腦版就能點評囉  發表於 2018-8-21 19:54
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-21 19:14 | 顯示全部樓層
風眼清空,09Z根據飛機實測結果評價130節。
WTPA42 PHFO 210857
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 20 2018


Lane has quite an impressive satellite signature this evening, with
a solid ring of very cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.
Aircraft from NOAA and the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
have been flying through lane at 8 to 10 thousand feet respectively
this evening, and are confirming that Lane is a powerful hurricane
that has intensified since their last visit this morning. The
central pressure has dropped roughly 10 mb, peak SFMR winds were 140
kt with max flight level winds near 128 kt, and an eyewall
dropsonde recorded winds near 139 kt. Based on a blend of the
aircraft data, the initial intensity for this advisory is increased
to 130 kt, maintaining Lane as a powerful category 4 hurricane.


The initial motion for this advisory is 280/10 kt, with Lane
continuing to be steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the
north. Over the next couple of days, Lane is expected to reach the
western periphery of the ridge, allowing the cyclone to gain
latitude. Some increase in the clustering of the track model
guidance has occurred this cycle, with the ECMWF no longer on the
left hand side of the envelope. All of the reliable model guidance
now indicates that Lane will begin to make a gradual turn to the
west-northwest by Wednesday, with a gradual slowing in forward
speed. A more decided turn toward the northwest is expected
Thursday, with relatively slow-moving Lane now forecast to move
dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the
west is expected in the later forecast periods, with forecast models
indicating a weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the
low-level trade wind flow. The updated track forecast lies between
the previous official forecast and the HCCA.

The weakening in the latter forecast periods appears to be related
to an increase in vertical wind shear, but it also appears that
forecast models are expecting interaction with island terrain to
interrupt the low-level wind flow into Lane. Water temperatures
along the forecast track will be sufficiently warm to support a
major hurricane, and thus any significant weakening before Lane
draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will likely be due to shear.
With shear expected to be minimal in the short term, subtle
intensity fluctuations associated with inner-core dynamics will
likely lead to little overall change in intensity. The later
forecast periods anticipate an increase in shear as Lane will lie
between the ridge to the east and trough aloft to the northwest of
the main Hawaiian Islands, and the updated intensity forecast has
been nudged upward in the short term due to recent trends and
follows the previous official forecast in the latter forecast
periods, close to the IVCN consensus.

The uncertainty in the track forecast necessitates that interests in
the Hawaiian Islands continue to closely monitor Lane the next
couple of days. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast
track, as impacts from Lane extend well away from its center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 14.0N 151.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
12H  21/1800Z 14.3N 152.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  22/0600Z 14.7N 153.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 15.4N 155.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  23/0600Z 16.4N 156.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  24/0600Z 18.9N 157.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  25/0600Z 20.7N 159.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 21.0N 161.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

EP142018_5day_cone_with_line_26.png

recon_AF306-0814E-LANE.png

recon_AF306-0814E-LANE_timeseries.png

LATEST.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.7]常住居民III

asus5635|2018-8-21 22:32 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 asus5635 於 2018-8-21 22:34 編輯

進西太的強度有點不看好
如果型態不佳進來可能又會被甩鍋 LANE14E.2018082106.Vmax.png

14E_intensity_latest.png
temp1.png


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-22 09:53 | 顯示全部樓層
21Z根據實測再調升強度到135節。
WTPA42 PHFO 212107
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Lane remains a powerful hurricane this morning, with a well-
developed warm eye completely surrounded by persistent cold cloud
tops. Morning visible satellite imagery also depicts a well-defined
eye. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft from the 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron is flying through Lane again this morning,
and confirms that the hurricane has intensified further since
their previous visit on Monday evening. The central pressure
has dropped around 10 mb during the past 12 hours, with the most
recent dropsonde in the eye finding 941 mb. Peak SFMR winds measured
so far have been 134 kt, and max flight level winds are 143 kt.

Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt
to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity at 6.4/125 kt.
Based primarily on the aircraft data, the intial intensity for this
advisory is increased to 135 kt, which makes Lane a high-end
Category 4 hurricane.

Lane is moving a bit slower this morning and appears to have wobbled
slightly to the WNW during the last few hours, and the initial
motion for this advisory is 280/8 kt. Lane has been moving westward
to the south of a mid-level ridge during the past several days.
However, this will be changing soon, as Lane begins to round the
western periphery of this ridge and moves into an area of
relatively light steering flow. This is expected to allow the
cyclone to gain latitude as its forward speed diminishes. The
hurricane is forecast to turn gradually to the west-northwest
through tonight, then to the northwest Wednesday through Thursday,
as it moves between the mid-level ridge to the east and a developing
upper-level trough to the northwest of Hawaii. After this point, the
track and intensity forecasts remain highly uncertain, as the
majority of the reliable model guidance brings Lane very close to
the islands with potential interaction between Lane and the
mountainous terrain of the islands. This interaction combined with
increasing vertical wind shear leads to a weakened Lane being
steered to the west by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the north or closer to the
islands from 36 through 72 hours, into better agreement with the
multi-model consensus HCCA.

Water temperatures along the forecast track will be sufficiently
warm to support a major hurricane, and thus any significant
weakening before Lane draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands will
likely be due to increasing wind shear. In the short-term through
the next 24 hours or so, shear is expected to remain light, and
expect only slow weakening as the cyclone moves over slightly
cooler SSTs and may be impacted by eyewall replacement cycles.
At 72 hours and beyond, the forecast anticipates a sharp increase
in shear as Lane moves closer to the large upper trough to the
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. The new intensity
forecast is close to the previous forecast, and although it
remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, it generally
follows the trends presented by the multi-model consensus IVCN and
HCCA.

In addition to continued storm penetrations by the Hurricane Hunters
of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the NOAA G-IV will once
again be sampling the larger scale environment today to help with
initialization of the forecast models.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lane is forecast to move dangerously close to the main Hawaiian
Islands as a hurricane later this week, potentially bringing
damaging winds and life-threatening flash flooding from heavy
rainfall. As Lane is expected to be slow-moving as it nears the
islands, it will produce large and damaging surf. A Hurricane Watch
remains in effect for Hawaii and Maui counties, and additional
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches may be required this afternoon
or tonight.

2. It is much too early to confidently determine which, if any, of
the main Hawaiian Islands will be directly impacted by Lane. Even
if the center of Lane were to remain offshore, it is important to
remember that impacts from a hurricane can extend well away from
the center. Interests throughout Hawaii are urged to closely
monitor the progress of Lane during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 14.3N 153.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
12H  22/0600Z 14.7N 154.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
24H  22/1800Z 15.6N 155.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
36H  23/0600Z 16.6N 156.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  23/1800Z 17.9N 156.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  24/1800Z 20.6N 158.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  25/1800Z 21.7N 160.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 21.5N 164.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

EP142018_5day_cone_with_line_28.png

recon_AF306-0914E-LANE_timeseries.png

recon_AF306-0914E-LANE.png

GOES00002018234a0qv3M.jpg
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[LV.5]常住居民I

天篷大元帥|2018-8-22 12:22 | 顯示全部樓層
中太平洋颶風中心對夏威夷縣發出颶風警告
WTPA32 PHFO 220239
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lane Advisory Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...POWERFUL HURRICANE LANE CONTINUES MOVING CLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...
HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Hawaii County.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Oahu.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County...including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and across the
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, should continue to closely monitor
the progress of Hurricane Lane. Additional Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches or Warnings may be issued tonight or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.0 West. Lane is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Lane will move very
close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Lane is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, but Lane is forecast to remain a dangerous
hurricane as it draws closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area beginning late Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions expected
somewhere within the warning area on Thursday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area beginning
Thursday into Thursday night, with hurricane conditions possible
late Thursday night into Friday.

RAINFALL: Excessive rainfall associated with Lane is expected
to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into
the weekend, leading to flash flooding and landslides. Lane is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with
isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands.

SURF: Large swells generated by Lane will impact the Hawaiian
Islands, beginning tonight on the Big Island, spreading
across the remainder of the island chain on Wednesday. These
swells will produce large and potentially damaging surf along
exposed west, south and east facing shorelines.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jacobson

(中太平洋颶風中心報文)


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-22 12:59 | 顯示全部樓層
CPHC根據新一輪飛機實測發出更新報,調升強度到140節,正式站上五級颶風!
WTPA62 PHFO 220423
TCUCP2

Hurricane Lane Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
620 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE...


Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has continued to
intensify this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 160 mph (260 km/h), making Lane an extremely dangerous category
5 hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.


SUMMARY OF 620 PM HST...0420 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Birchard/Jacobson

WTPA42 PHFO 220453
TCDCP2

Hurricane Lane Special Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
645 PM HST Tue Aug 21 2018

Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has strengthened
to a category 5 hurricane, and this special advisory represents an
update to the current intensity, and the forecast intensity through
the first 36 hours. No changes were made to the remainder of the
forecast.

...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0430Z 14.5N 154.0W  140 KT 160 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 15.0N 155.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 16.0N 156.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
36H  23/1200Z 17.2N 156.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
48H  24/0000Z 18.6N 157.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  25/0000Z 21.1N 158.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  26/0000Z 21.5N 161.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 21.0N 164.5W   40 KT  45 MPH


第一次穿心VDM報告測得154節....
197
URPN12 KWBC 220425
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE  EP142018
A. 22/03:53:43Z
B. 14.46 deg N 153.95 deg W
C. NA
D. 927 mb
E. 165 deg 13 kt
F. CLOSED WALL
G. C20
H. 154 kt
I. 301 deg 8 nm 03:51:40Z
J. 034 deg 145 kt
K. 299 deg 10 nm 03:51:06Z
L. 132 kt
M. 096 deg 8 nm 03:55:43Z
N. 181 deg 144 kt
O. 095 deg 8 nm 03:55:48Z
P. 14 C / 2446 m
Q. 31 C / 2420 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1114E LANE OB 08
PENETRATION AT 8000 FT
STADIUM EFFECT IN EYE
MAX FL WIND 145 KT 299 / 10 NM 03:51:06Z

recon_NOAA2-1114E-LANE.png

recon_NOAA2-1114E-LANE_timeseries.png

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2018-8-22 18:34 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2018-8-25 21:38 編輯


昨天達到了Cat.4 ,今天強度在中午再次經歷巔峰,更上一層樓。

最新美軍方的實測出爐了
"927hPa  SFMR : 154Kts"


雷恩比赫克特還要稍強點


評價給了 926hPa  140Kts


125759zw39ez4v1p11exv3.png



recon_NOAA2-1114E-LANE.png



目前最新的實測,雷恩颶風強度也開始漸漸走下坡了


20180822.0442.f17.x.91h.14ELANE.90kts-964mb-189N-1579W.088pc.jpg



這底層兇殘 , 不輸給西太幾個有水平的颱風(如:范斯高、梅莎、瑪莉亞...等)



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-8-25 13:10 | 顯示全部樓層
被風切吃死,快速減弱到TS,正為夏威夷帶來降雨。
WTPA42 PHFO 250308
TCDCP2
  
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
500 PM HST Fri Aug 24 2018
  
It took awhile...but once the 35 to 40 kt of shear began to
impact the core convection from Lane, the battle ended quickly. A
very helpful 89 GHz microwave pass over Lane around 0000 UTC showed
the circulation center was now mainly comprised of low and mid
level clouds completely detached from the remaining pockets of deep
convection to the northeast of the center. Even a blend of the
Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates appeared to be too
generous, based on the very rapid degradation of the cloud pattern
and the WSR-88D radar velocities. Settled on 60 kt for the current
intensity.

The new motion estimate is 315/3, but this is a bit uncertain
until we have more time to examine this change. The low level
circulation of Lane is expected to continue to weaken in the face of
continued strong shear, and driven on a westward track by the low
level flow. The track guidance is in better agreement than I've seen
it in awhile. If it survives long enough, the global models show
Lane may get a new lease on life as an extratropical low over the
Northwest Hawaiian Islands. In any case, we will be happy to get rid
of the tropical cyclone in our vicinity. Until then, people should
be mindful of additional impacts that can still occur until Lane
departs.

  
KEY MESSAGES:
  
1.  Rainbands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane can
still bring persistent, flooding rainfall and damaging winds.
Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the center.
Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps, and
where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.
  

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
INIT  25/0300Z 19.2N 158.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 19.4N 158.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 159.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 19.7N 160.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  27/0000Z 19.7N 161.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  28/0000Z 20.4N 164.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  29/0000Z 22.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  30/0000Z 25.9N 167.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
$$
Forecaster R Ballard

EP142018_5day_cone_with_line_43.png

rbtop-animated.gif

wg9sht.GIF

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