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04B.Daye 登陸印度 孟加拉灣首個氣旋風暴

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

2018-9-16 17:34 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :BOB 07 ( 04 B )
擾動編號日期:2018 09 16 17
撤編日期  :2018 09 21 21
97B.INVEST.15kts-1000mb-14.8N-88.3E

20180915.2200.himawari-8.ir.97B.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.14.8N.88.3E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
t02436 + 15 + 1

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[LV.4]偶爾看看III

hunter555|2018-9-16 19:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 hunter555 於 2018-9-17 00:42 編輯

駛流場數據支持.可是區域水溫條件有待觀察.
需等待山竹過去殘留水氣有無加乘效果 或 區域水溫上升.
長大機率50~60%.

2018.09.17 南邊冷水上來太快 GG.

wm5dlm1.gif
2018.09.15I.gif
2018.09.16I.gif

2018.09.17記錄檔

2018.09.17記錄檔
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-9-18 11:11 | 顯示全部樓層
18Z評級Low
  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1N
      92.0E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH.
BASED ON THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND  AN
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 171631Z, SHOW WEAK FLARING
CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION, REDUCING
CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE AT 5-15KTS.
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD FLOW IS HELPING TO ENABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27-29C.
MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF BURMA IN 48-72
HOURS WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE POSITIONING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-9-19 18:11 | 顯示全部樓層

RE: 97B Medium數值支持一定程度發展

JTWC18/18Z評級提升至Medium

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 92.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16N 93E, APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND AN 181213Z 91GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOW
WEAK FLARING CONVECTION WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION. AN
181452Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 5-10 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH
STRONGER WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT THERE IS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AT 10-20 KTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 27-29C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW POSSIBLE TC DEVELOPMENT IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL IN 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair-1.jpg
vis_lalo-animated-97B.gif


點評

區域燃料要嗑光了.也太接近陸地了.  發表於 2018-9-19 19:51
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

周子堯@FB|2018-9-20 18:10 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD升格深低壓BOB 07
BOB/07/2018
                                                                                    Dated: 20.09.2018
                                                                                    The deep depression over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards in past six hours with a speed about 12 kmph. It lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20th September, 2018 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 17.60N and longitude 86.80E, about 290 km east-southeast of Kalingapatnam (Coastal Andhra Pradesh) and about 270 km southeast of Gopalpur (Odisha). It is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours.                                          

Date/Time(IST) Position
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
Category of cyclonic
disturbance
20.09.18/1130 17.6/86.8 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
20.09.18/1730 18.5/85.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
20.09.18/2330 19.2/84.2 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
21.09.18/0530 19.8/82.9 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
21.09.18/1130 20.5/81.4 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
21.09.18/2330 21.8/78.9 40-50 gusting to 60 Depression
22.09.18/1130 23.1/76.5 30-40 gusting to 50 Depression
20180920.0440.himawari8.x.vis2km.97BINVEST.30kts-998mb-170N-874E.100pc.jpg




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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-9-21 00:11 | 顯示全部樓層
12Z升格04B,即將登陸。
io0418.gif

20180920.1540.himawari-8.ircolor.04B.FOUR.35kts.995mb.18.1N.86.3E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-21 05:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-9-21 05:30 編輯

IMD 命名"DAYE",也是孟加拉灣首個氣旋風暴,即將登陸。
rsmc.pdf (816.88 KB, 下載次數: 1)
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-9-21 05:28 | 顯示全部樓層
霧峰追風者 發表於 2018-9-21 05:22
IMD 命名"DAYE",也是北印首個氣旋風暴,即將登陸。

JTWC 18Z發"FW",短暫的2次報文。
io0418.gif rgb-animated.gif rbtop-animated.gif

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