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05A.Luban 逐漸增強 趨向阿拉伯半島

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2018-10-4 11:58 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈氣旋風暴  
編號:ARB 04 ( 05 A )
名稱:Luban

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2018 10 04 11
JTWC升格日期:2018 10 08 08
命名日期  :2018 10 08 10
撤編日期  :2018 10 00 00
登陸地點  :暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD ):55 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):55 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:990 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  

99A.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-6.3N-70.2E

20181004.0320.himawari-8.ir.99A.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.6.3N.70.2E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

資訊沒有更新  發表於 2019-1-17 12:35

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 2578 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-10-5 10:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8N
70.6E, APPROXIMATELY 900 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041342Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WITH AN ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO
THE CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 48-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

99A_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-6 11:55 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升至Medium,看好發展。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.8N 70.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 1113
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051617Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOW A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS
TROUGHING WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WITH A
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
.
abpwsair.jpg 20181006.0300.msg1.x.vis1km_high.99AINVEST.20kts-1004mb-115N-684E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-7 00:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 發布TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 060830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 67.7E TO 13.2N 61.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3N 66.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
70.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 66.9E, APPROXIMATELY 822 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH ADEQUATE UL
DIVERGENCE ENABLED BY FORMATIVE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. VWS IS LOW-
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE WEST. DESPITE THESE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES, VERTICAL ALIGNMENT
BETWEEN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS REMAINS GOOD. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) IN THE ARABIAN SEA
AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SOLID
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070830Z.//
NNNN
io992018.18100606.gif 20181006.1400.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.99AINVEST.25kts-1004mb-114N-661E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-7 13:07 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 已編號ARB 04,上望強氣旋風暴。
rsmc.pdf (111.83 KB, 下載次數: 2)
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-8 12:34 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 稍早命名"Luban"
TC ADVISORY TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20181008/0000Z
TC: LUBAN
NR: 3
PSN: N1218 E06224
MOV: WNW06KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 08/0600Z N1230 E06148
FCST MAX WIND+06HR: 40KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 08/1200Z N1248 E06112
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 08/1800Z N1306 E06036
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 45KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 09/0000Z N1324 E06000
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL NXT
MSG: 20181008/0900Z
TOO: 080800 HRS IST
79_60828_2cb3c6bf32f78c7.png


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2018-10-8 12:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 00Z升格熱帶風暴05A,強度上望颶風,趨向阿拉伯半島。
io0518.gif 05A_080000sair.jpg 20181008.0300.msg1.ir.BD.05AFIVE.35kts-996mb.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2018-10-10 01:35 | 顯示全部樓層
12Z兩大機構都評價55節。
JTWC上望C1,IMD上望VSCS。
tcacgraphic.png

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY No. 13.png

io052018.20181009161140.gif

20181009.1630.msg-4.ircolor.05A.LUBAN.55kts.982mb.13.3N.60.3E.100pc.jpg

20181009.1125.f16.91pct91h91v.05A.LUBAN.55kts.982mb.13.2N.60.1E.075pc.jpg

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