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本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-1-24 15:20 編輯 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 24/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0600 UTC
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 24/1200: 12.3S 140.7E: 030 : 025 : 1005
+12: 24/1800: 12.8S 140.6E: 045 : 025 : 1003
+18: 25/0000: 13.0S 140.7E: 055 : 030 : 1002
+24: 25/0600: 13.5S 141.0E: 070 : 030 : 1001
+36: 25/1800: 14.6S 141.4E: 090 : 035 : 1001
+48: 26/0600: 15.7S 141.3E: 110 : 045 : 994
+60: 26/1800: 16.3S 140.7E: 130 : 045 : 994
+72: 27/0600: 17.1S 140.2E: 145 : 045 : 994
+96: 28/0600: 17.7S 137.9E: 190 : 030 : 1003
+120: 29/0600: 17.4S 136.1E: 280 : 025 : 1005
Centre loacted using combination of Weipa radar and satellite imagery, fix is
Deep convection has persisted near the low level circulation centre over the
past few hours, primarily over the western flank, although there is some signs
of convective development over the eastern flank as well. Dvorak analysis based
on curved band wrapping 0.3, yielding DT1.5. Current intensity set at 25 knots.
Motion has been slowly to the south-southwest under the influence of the mid
level ridge to the east and the digging upper low over the far eastern Northern
Territory. These features should remain the dominant steering influences until
Sunday, when the upper low is forecast to weaken, allowing the mid level ridge
over central Queensland to steer the system onto a southwesterly track. Most
dynamical model guidance is broadly consistent with this evolution.
The environment is currently very favourable for development, with very weak
vertical wind shear, and good upper level outflow in all quadrants, combined
with sea surface temperatures around 30C. SHIPS guidance is suggestive of RI in
the next 24 hours, but this does not seem reasonable given the relatively weak
and broad nature of the vortex at the present time. As the system moves south,
it will gradually come under the influence of the upper low, leading to an
increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear, forecast to reach around 20 knots
by Friday evening. This may be partially offset by warmer SSTs over the
southeastern Gulf, leading to stronger convection and a more resilient vortex.
However, the centre may also be very close to land along the west coast of Cape
York Peninsula at this time which may hamper development. The official forecast
calls for development at around the standard rate for the next 24 hours,
followed by slower and eventually arrested development. This calls for the
system topping out at category 1, although there is potential for the system to
reach category 2 status on Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm EST on Thursday 24 January 2019
Tropical low over the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria to intensify and track south
Mornington Island to Mapoon, including Weipa, Burketown, Normanton and Kowanyama.
Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres northwest of Weipa and 550 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island.
Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.
The tropical low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two as it moves slowly to the south.
Gales are not expected to develop along the coast in the next 24 hours, but may develop between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth overnight Friday or Saturday morning and extend south to the remainder of the Watch zone later on Saturday.
Heavy rainfall, which may lead to both flash flooding and riverine flooding, is expected to develop across Cape York Peninsula and spread slowly southwards. A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are current over Cape York Peninsula, the eastern Gulf Country and the North Tropical Coast, see: www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/
People between Mapoon and Mornington Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Thursday 24 January.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.