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12S.Funani 槽前爆發上C4 後南下轉化溫氣

簽到天數: 1915 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2019-2-2 22:07 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:08-20182019 ( 12 S )
名稱:Funani

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 02 02 21
JTWC升格日期:2019 02 05 20
命名日期  :2019 02 06 02
撤編日期  :2019 02 11 00
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速:
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR ):105 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓:937 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
98S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.9.1S.70.9E

20190202.0950.f15.85h.98S.INVEST.15kts.996mb.9.1S.70.9E.040pc.jpg

以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-3 17:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 09z評級 Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.0S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 166 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030508Z PARTIAL AMSU 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN WESTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 98S LOCATED IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE TO SEVERE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
OUTFLOW. SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS) WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE 98S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98S WILL DEVELOP AND TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT DO NOT AGREE ON THE INTENSIFICATION AND THE TIMING
THEREOF. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
20190203.0830.msg1.x.vis1km_high.98SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-100S-716E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-5 00:20 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 11Z評級提升至Medium,機構看好發展。
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 71.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 785
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 040850Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE
CENTRALLY LOCATED MASS OF CONVECTION WITH SOME FRAGMENTARY BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO FORMATIVE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY
OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THIS REGION OF THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND REACH 35 KNOTS WITHIN
THE NEXT 36-54 HOURS. JGSM IS DISSENTING, FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF
INVEST 97S INSTEAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair (5).jpg 20190204.1500.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.98SINVEST.25kts-1007mb-137S-679E.100pc.jpg 98S_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-5 00:25 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 編號熱帶擾動第8號,巔峰暫時上望65kt。
WTIO31 FMEE 041252
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/8/20182019
1.A PERTURBATION TROPICALE 8
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 04/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 21 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.9 S / 68.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE HUIT DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST 6 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1006 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1011 HPA / 300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2019 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 05/02/2019 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2019 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
48H: 06/02/2019 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
60H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
72H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 08/02/2019 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 09/02/2019 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LA CONVECTION ASSOCIEE A LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES SUIVIE DEPUIS
PLUSIEURS JOURS S'EST MAINTENUE AU COURS DES DERNIERES 24H. LA DERNIERE
PASSE ASCAT DE 0448UTC PERMET D'ESTIMER DES VENT DE L'ORDRE DE 20KT, MAIS
SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE 0850UTC ET 1058UTC LA
CIRCULATION SEMBLE ENCORE MAL DEFINIE.
LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS CENTRES D'ACTION, QUE CE SOIT EN ALTITUDE
OU EN BASSES COUCHES, PERMET DE DEFINIR UNE BONNE CONFIANCE EN TERME
DE TRAJECTOIRE. APRES UNE ORIENTATION SUD-OUEST EN DEBUT DE VIE,
GLISSANT SUR LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS POSITIONNES ACTUELLEMENT AU
CENTRE DU BASSIN, LE PROFOND TALWEG QUI CIRCULE AU SUD VA OUVRIR UN
CANAL D'EVACUATION A ECHEANCE DE 36H, EN DECALANT LES HAUTS
GEOPOTENTIELS SUR LA PARTIE EST DU BASSIN. CE CANAL VA PERMETTRE UNE
TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST BIEN DEFINIE A PARTIR DE MERCREDI.
L'INCERTITUDE SE PLACE PLUTOT EN TERME DE PREVISION D'INTENSITE DU A
L'INFLUENCE CONJOINTE AVEC UNE DEUXIEME CIRCULATION SE SITUANT AU
SUD-EST D'AGALEGA. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES SONT EN TOTAL DESACCORD
SUR L'EVOLUTION DE SES DEUX SYSTEMES : LE DEVELOPPEMENT DE L'UN ALLANT
A L'ENCONTRE DE L'AUTRE. LA PREVISION ACTUELLE DU CMRS PRIVILEGIE LE
DEVELOPPEMENT DU SYSTEME 08-20182019 AU DETRIMENT DE LA CIRCULATION AU
SUD-EST DE AGALEGA. ACTUELLEMENT SOUS UNE ZONE DE CISAILLEMENT FAIBLE
A MODERE, LA PERTURBATION TROPICALE VA VOIR SON INTENSITE AUGMENTER
PROGRESSIVEMENT. SANS CONTRAINTE OCEANIQUE, CE SONT LES CONDITIONS
ATMOSPHERIQUES QUI JOUENT : L'AUGMENTATION DU CISAILLEMENT LE LONG DE
LA TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME ET UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ SEC DANS LA PARTIE
SUD VA TOUTEFOIS LIMITER CETTE INTENSIFICATION, LAISSANT LE SYSTEME
08-20182019 ATTEINDRE LE SEUIL DE CYCLONE QUE ASSEZ TARDIVEMENT, AVANT
D'ETRE TOTALEMENT GENE PAR LE FORT CISAILLEMENT PRESENT AU SUD DE 25
SUD EN FIN DE SEMAINE.
SWI_20182019.png

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-5 10:15 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 21Z發布TCFA。
WTXS21 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 67.7E TO 17.9S 64.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
042030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
67.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 67.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 645
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 041721Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
041722Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-
30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052100Z.//
NNNN

sh9819.gif 98S_042100sair.jpg

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-2-5 10:27 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 00Z強度升熱帶低壓,有機會在今日命名,巔峰上望70kt。
WTIO31 FMEE 050016
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 3/8/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 8
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 05/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.7 S / 65.8 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES HUIT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 9 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1001 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 74 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SO: NO:
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 05/02/2019 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 06/02/2019 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 06/02/2019 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
48H: 07/02/2019 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
60H: 07/02/2019 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 08/02/2019 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 09/02/2019 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
120H: 10/02/2019 00 UTC: 38.7 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5-
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION EST RESTEE TRES FORTE
DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD TOUT EN RESTANT TRES FLUCTUANTE. DANS LE
DEMI-CERCLE SUD, LA CONVECTION SEMBLE TOUJOURS PERTURBEE PAR LA
PRESENCE D'AIR SEC. CEPENDANT, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE 37 GHZ SSMI DE 2207Z
MONTRE UNE CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES DE MIEUX EN MIEUX DEFINI.
LA CONFIGURATION DES GRANDS CENTRES D'ACTION, QUE CE SOIT EN ALTITUDE
OU EN BASSES COUCHES, PERMET DE DEFINIR UNE BONNE CONFIANCE EN TERME
DE TRAJECTOIRE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST
PILOTE PAR LA DORSALE DE BASSE/MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE SITUEE DANS LE
SUD-EST DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, LA DORSALE SE DECALE VERS
L'EST ET LAISSE PLACE A UN PROFOND TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES. LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU SYSTEME VA ALORS S'INCURVER VERS LE SUD PUIS A PARTIR DE
JEUDI VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT PLUTOT
FAVORABLES JUSQU'A JEUDI. L'ALIMENTATION DE BASSES COUCHES EST TRÈS
BONNE CÔTE EQUATORIALE ET DEVRAIT RESTER SUFFISANTE CÔTE POLAIRE
AVANT L'ARRIVÉE DU PROFOND TALWEG DE SURFACE. LES CONDITIONS
D'ALTITUDE SONT BONNES AVEC UNE TRÈS BONNE DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE A LA
FOIS CÔTE POLAIRE ET EQUATORIALE ET UN FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
VENT. SEUL L'AIR SEC DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE ADVECTE PAR LA DORSALE DE
BASSES COUCHES PEUT RALENTIR L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME. A PARTIR DE
VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST LIÉ A L'ARRIVÉE DU PROFOND TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE DEVRAIT DEVENIR MODERE A FORT ET AFFAIBLIR LE SYSTEME. A
PARTIR DE CE WEEK-END, EN INTERAGISSANT AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES. LES
MODELES SONT GLOBALEMENT EN ACCORD AVEC CE SCENARIO.
SWI_20182019 (1).png 20190205.0130.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.98SINVEST.30kts-1006mb-148S-660E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-5 21:09 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z率先升格熱帶氣旋。
SH, 12, 2019020512,   , BEST,   0, 156S,  645E,  35, 1004, TS
20190205.1200.msg1.x.vis1km_high.12STWELVE.35kts-1004mb-156S-645E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +25 收起 理由
t02436 + 25

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2019-2-5 23:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC初報巔峰上望105節。
sh122019.20190205142325.gif

即將命名,MFR 12Z上望65節。
ZCZC 863
WTIO30 FMEE 051321 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/8/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2019/02/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 64.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/02/06 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/02/06 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/02/07 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/02/07 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/02/08 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/02/08 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/02/09 12 UTC: 33.4 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/02/10 12 UTC: 44.0 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
NNNN

SWI_20182019.png

Special Weather Bulletin
Info on the low pressure systems to the north northeast of Rodrigues and in the vicinity of Agalega
Issued at 1400 hours on Tuesday 05 February 2019.

1. The tropical disturbance located far to the southwest of Diego Garcia intensified into a tropical depression during last night. At 1000 hours this morning it was centered at about 550 km to the north northeast of Rodrigues. This system will move in a general southwesterly direction at a speed of about 15 km/h, while continuing to intensify and becoming a moderate tropical storm by this evening. It will then be named FUNANI. The tropical storm is expected to recurve towards the south-east as from Wednesday 06 February 2019. On this trajectory the centre of the storm will approach Rodrigues and is likely to pass at about 160 km to the East Northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday 06 February around mid-night.

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