霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z強度升四級颶風( 115kts )。

jrchang5

JTWC於15Z發布的報文指出，由於所處環境垂直風切低，極向流出佳，強度還有小幅增強空間。

WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 009   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 66.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 66.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 21.5S 68.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.9S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 26.5S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 29.0S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 35.5S 79.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 67.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TC 12S HAS MAINTAINED A THICK EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AGREES WITH MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T6.0 (115 KTS) AND CLOSE TO A 070916Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 119 KTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD BIAS THAT IS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.
TC 12S IS TRACKING OVER WARM WATERS (26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST. TC 12S WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AS IT IS PULLED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL INITIALLY INCREASE AS TC 12S TAPS
INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION TO 120 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SSTS, AND DECREASING OUTFLOW AS TC 12S MOVES UNDER THE
WESTERLY JET, WILL CAUSE WEAKENING. BY TAU 48, TC 12S WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, EVENTUALLY BECOMING A STRONG STORM-FORCE
COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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蜜露

前方的環境正逐漸的轉差 , 剛達成Cat.4後將減弱..


這貨給Cat.4其實有點勉強

霧峰追風者

巔峰已過，強度減弱為"熱帶氣旋"，逐漸南下轉化。

WTIO31 FMEE 080657
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/8/20182019
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (FUNANI)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 08/02/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 69.7 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE NEUF DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 14 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 958 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SO: 210 NO: 240
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 210
48 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SO: 140 NO: 140
64 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 08/02/2019 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
24H: 09/02/2019 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 09/02/2019 18 UTC: 30.9 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 10/02/2019 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 78.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 10/02/2019 18 UTC: 39.6 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 11/02/2019 06 UTC: 44.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=5.0-;CI=5.5-
AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LA CONFIGURATION EN OEIL A DISPARU SUR
L'IMAGERIE INFRA-ROUGE. LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT CONFIRMENT
LE CYCLE DU MUR DE L'OEIL. LES DERNIERES DONNEES DU PRODUIT M-PERP DU
CIMSS SEMBLE INDIQUER QUE LE RAYON DE VENT MAX SOIT LOCALISÉ
MAINTENANT DANS LE MUR EXTERNE. EN REVANCHE, L'IMAGE MICRO-ONDE
SSMIS 85 GHZ DE 0125Z MONTRE UNE EROSION DES MURS DE L'OEIL DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-OUEST SOUS L'EFFET DU CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE VENT.
DANS CES CONDITIONS LE SYSTEME NE POURRAIT CONNAITRE QU'UNE
INTENSIFICATION LIMITÉE APRES AVOIR ACHEVÉ SON ERC.
FUNANI CONTINUE D'ACCELERER VERS LE SUD-EST, PILOTE PAR LA FACE EST D'UN
PROFOND THALWEG DE MOYENNE/HAUTE ALTITUDE CIRCULANT DEPUIS LE
SUD-OUEST ET PAR L'EFFACEMENT DE LA DORSALE A L'EST. LES MODELES RESTENT
EN BON ACCORD MEME SI LA DISPERSION DES MODELES DETERMINISTES ET DE
L'EPS AUGMENTE UNE FOIS QUE FUNANI PASSE AU SUD DE 30S.
LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR OUEST DEVRAIT S'INTENSIFIER
AUJOURD'HUI A L'AVANT DU PROFOND TALWEG D'ALTITUDE CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT SIGNIFICATIF DU SYSTEME. DE PLUS, LE CONTENU
ÉNERGÉTIQUE OCÉANIQUE EST PRÉVU FAIBLIR DEMAIN PUIS DEVENIR
INSUFFISANT A PARTIR DE SAMEDI. DANS LE MÊME TEMPS, EN INTERAGISSANT
AVEC LE JET SUBTROPICAL, LE SYSTÈME DEVRAIT PERDRE SES
CARACTÉRISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES MAIS POURRAIT TOUTEFOIS
CONSERVER DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS LORS DE SON ÉVACUATION VERS LES
LATITUDES TEMPÉRÉES GRACE AUX PROCESSUS BAROCLINES.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z轉為溫帶氣旋，18Z發報FW。

SH, 12, 2019020918,   , BEST,   0, 308S,  768E,  45,  991, TS,  34, NEQ,  190,  160,   90,  105, 1008,  180,  30,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     FUNANI, M,
SH, 12, 2019021000,   , BEST,   0, 322S,  781E,  40,  993, EX,  34, NEQ,  195,  155,   75,  130, 1008,  180,  30,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     FUNANI, M,

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNING NR 018   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 30.8S 76.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 30.8S 76.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 35.0S 79.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 31.9S 77.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (FUNANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1210 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST DUE TO STRONG (40 TO 50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A
091641Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC 12S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S
(GELENA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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