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14P.Neil 短暫發展 轉化溫氣

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2019-2-8 20:06 | 顯示全部樓層
  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號:07 F ( 14 P )
名稱:Neil

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 02 08 19
升格熱低日期:2019 02 09 01
命名日期  :2019 02 09 13
JTWC升格日期:2019 02 10 02
撤編日期  :2019 02 11 03
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速
斐濟氣象局 ( FMS ):35 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):35 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓:994 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
91P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.0S-178.4E

20190208.1140.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.11S.178.4E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-9 00:39 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 編號熱帶擾動07F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD070F [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.4S 179.4E
AT 081200UTC. TD06F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. POSITION POOR
BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
20190208.1610.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.3S.178.9E.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-9 04:15 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 升格熱帶低壓。
GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 081935 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE [997HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.6S 179.0W AT
081800UTC. POSITION POOR. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
TD07F CENTRE IN THE THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE DEPRESSION.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM.
td07f.png 20190208.1757.f17.ir.olsircomp.91P.INVEST.x.jpg 91P_gefs_latest.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-9 10:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 23Z評級提升至Medium
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.8S 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AND IS LOCATED UNDER A BROAD 200MB/500MB TROUGH WITH WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 081739Z WINDSAT 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT EXTENSIVE AREAS OF FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. RECENT MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD TURNING
WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC.
A 082020Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED ABOUT
100NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A BROAD, WEAK (10 TO 20 KNOTS) CIRCULATION.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
abpwsair (1).jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-9 10:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-2-9 10:56 編輯

FMS 開始發報,有機會命名。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090146 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 176.5W AT 090000
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.


DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 TO
12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
EAST. SST AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.40 WRAP
YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 18.1S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 20.2S 175.3W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 22.5S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 25.1S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 13 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 090800 UTC.
65660.gif

JTWC 18Z認定為副熱帶風暴。
SH, 91, 2019020806,   , BEST,   0, 129S, 1792W,  15, 1010, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020812,   , BEST,   0, 139S, 1788W,  30, 1000, SD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020818,   , BEST,   0, 147S, 1784W,  35,  996, SS,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
SH, 91, 2019020900,   , BEST,   0, 156S, 1778W,  35,  996, SS,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1002,  240, 100,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
20190209.0222.goes-15.ir.91P.INVEST.35kts.996mb.16.1S.177.7W.095pc.jpg rbtop-animated.gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-9 13:56 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 命名"Neil",逐漸南下。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 090525 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 175.9W AT 090400 UTC.
POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 30 TO 31
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55-0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. PT AND
MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091600 UTC 18.9S 174.9W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100400 UTC 20.7S 174.3W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101600 UTC 22.5S 173.7W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110400 UTC 24.5S 173.4W MOV SSE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON NEIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.
65660 (1).gif rgb-animated (1).gif rbtop-animated (1).gif

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-9 20:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 12Z發布TCFA。
WTPS21 PGTW 091230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 176.5W TO 27.7S 174.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0S 176.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.1S 177.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 176.2W, APPROXIMATELY
390 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090656Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. A  091000Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS
PREDOMINANTLY 30KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC WITH OCCASIONAL
35KT WIND BARBS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR IS CURRENTLY HIGH (25-
40KTS) BUT IS OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO BROAD
WESTERLY OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT (27-29C) BUT 91P IS EXPECTED TO SOON CROSS INTO
UNFAVORABLY COOL (<26C) WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD
TRACK WITH SOME ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
EXHIBITNG SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
91P TO BECOME TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101230Z.//
NNNN
abpwsair (2).jpg sh9119.gif 20190209.1220.himawari-8.ir.91P.INVEST.35kts.996mb.19.5S.175.3W.100pc.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-2-10 06:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 18Z升格14P,中心裸露,持續南下。
WTPS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (NEIL) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091221ZFEB2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (NEIL) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 20.9S 174.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 174.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 24.5S 173.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 28.8S 171.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 33.8S 169.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 174.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (NEIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 14P HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A WEAK WARM-CORE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. A 090849Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES AN ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35NM, WHICH IS MORE
TYPICAL OF A TC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 80 TO 90NM EAST DUE TO STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 091726Z GMI 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES IMPROVED YET SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN. TC
14P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A WEAK TC AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND
OVER COOL SST (LESS THAN 25C). TC 14P SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 BUT
COULD DISSIPATE MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 091230).//
NNNN
sh1419.gif 20190209.2130.himawari-8.vis.14P.NEIL.35kts.996mb.20.9S.174.9W.100pc.jpg rgb-animated (2).gif

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