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01B.Fani 低緯發展北上爆發 近巔峰直襲印度東岸

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2019-4-24 11:32 | 顯示全部樓層
  極強氣旋風暴  
編號:BOB 02 ( 01 B )
名稱:Fani

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2019 04 24 11
JTWC升格日期:2019 04 27 08
命名日期  :2019 04 27 14
撤編日期  :2019 05 04 20
登陸地點  :印度 奧里薩邦

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 ( IMD ):115 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):135 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓:939 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
91B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-2.1N-91.5E

20190424.0300.himawari-8.vis.91B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2.1N.91.5E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

點評

我一直以為是首擾…  發表於 2019-4-24 12:07
請修正標題及內文,標題內文修正完畢後,再給予獎勵  發表於 2019-4-24 11:54

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1329 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2019-4-25 00:10 | 顯示全部樓層
IO, 91, 2019042312,   , BEST,   0, 0.1N,  90.3E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042318,   , BEST,   0, 0.1N,  89.8E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 91, 2019042400,   , BEST,   0, 0.2N,  89.5E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
JTWC新增91B編擾前的定強定位
並更改24/00Z,91B形成時的初始定位
79_104874_6ed4ee6427e877b.png 79_104874_5f37ee64620211c.png
79_104874_6ca09dca0177530.png


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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jrchang5|2019-4-25 18:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 25/10Z評級Medium。
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.4N
90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250716Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP,
FLARING CONVECTION AND BANDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW AND
DIFFLUENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS) SUPPORT FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20190425.1020.himawari-8.vis.91B.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.2.2N.90.6E.100pc.jpg 91B_gefs_latest.png


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2019-4-25 21:40 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 以編號BOB 02。
rsmc.pdf (242.49 KB, 下載次數: 2)

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
ben811018 + 10 緯度好低好特別XD

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老農民版夜神月|2019-4-26 01:10 | 顯示全部樓層
SSD25/1530Z開始對91P做出首報分析,值得一提的是,SSD1430Z緯度定位定於1.2N,與JTWC25/12Z定位的有較大的落差
TXIO29 KNES 251530
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91B)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 1.2N

D. 90.7E

E. THREE/MET-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT
OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

91B INVEST 190425 1200 2.8N 90.2E IO 25 1005

vis0426-lalo.gif wv01.gif
swir0.gif


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差2個半小時 除非滯留 不然應該落差  發表於 2019-4-26 01:25
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jrchang5|2019-4-26 16:30 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 26/03Z開始正式發報,首報定強為一低壓。預測27日有機會增強為氣旋風暴。
IMG-1004.PNG IMG-1005.PNG IMG-1003.PNG IMG-1002.PNG 20190426.0730.himawari-8.ircolor.91B.INVEST.30kts.1001mb.3N.89.3E.100pc.jpg rgb_lalo-animated.gif 91B_gefs_latest.png

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jrchang5|2019-4-26 17:45 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於26/09Z發布TCFA。
WTIO21 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.7N 89.5E TO 7.7N 86.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.0N
89.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.8N 90.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 610
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 260323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT,
FRAGMENTED BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A BROAD CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 260324Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH
QUADRANT AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
91B BORDERING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C) SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270900Z.//
NNNN
io9119.gif abpwsair.jpg


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霧峰追風者|2019-4-27 09:46 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-4-27 09:49 編輯

JTWC 00Z 率先升格熱帶。
20190427.0110.himawari-8.ir.01B.INVEST.35kts.1002mb.4.5N.87.9E.100pc.jpg 20190427.0027.f17.ir.olsircomp.01B.INVEST.x.jpg

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