簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-4-27 15:10
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JTWC 27/00Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 01B首報。
WTIO31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001A AMENDED AND
RELOCATED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260851ZJAN2109//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FARMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001B AMENDED RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 4.5N 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.5N 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 6.0N 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 7.3N 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 8.5N 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 9.6N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 11.7N 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.4N 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.2N 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 4.9N 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED BUT
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION, AIDED BY
CURRENT STORM MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ITS
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. BY TAU 96, IT
WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN MORE NORTHWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AND
PROMOTE A STEADY, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105
KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER
200 NM AT TAU 72 BUT ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z,
272100Z AND 280300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 260900).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: TRACK SHIFTED EAST ABOUT 120 NM
BASED ON RELOCATED POSITION.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED INITIAL POSITION OF TC
01B BASED ON A 270018Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
IDENTIFIED THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITION.//
NNNN 
IMD則判定同一時間升格為深低壓，預測將於今(27)日晚間增強為氣旋風暴。
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