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02A.Nisarga 近岸爆發 登陸印度馬哈拉施特拉邦

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2020-5-30 09:42 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號    :93 A
擾動編號日期:2020 05 30 09
撤編日期  :2020 06 05 13

93A INVEST 200530 0000 10.0N 72.0E IO 15 1010
未命名.png

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2020擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1054 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-5-31 11:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.4N 72.2E, APPROXIMATELY 241 NM WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301400Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING
CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 93A IS CURRENTLY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(<15 KNOTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 93A WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (6).jpg 93A_tracks_latest.png
93A_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-1 15:19 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-6-1 22:08 編輯

IMD03Z編號ARB/02,初報巔峰上望SCS(強烈氣旋風暴)60KT
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ftrack.png qwind.png

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老農民版夜神月|2020-6-1 22:10 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC01/1400Z發布TCFA
WTIO21 PGTW 011400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 71.2E TO 19.2N 69.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 71.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 71.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 331
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION
PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP HAS CONSOLIDATED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AS IS EVIDENT BY THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN
0105112 ASCAT-C DATA. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
021400Z.
//
NNNN

io9320.gif 93A_011300sair.jpg
93A_gefs_latest.png

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Meow|2020-6-2 17:01 | 顯示全部樓層
新命名表正式啟用
ftrack.png
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-3 03:17 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-6-3 03:37 編輯

JTWC03/18Z升格02A,定強40KT,最低氣壓998百帕
此系統將於今日午後登陸印度馬哈拉施特拉邦
io0220.gif 024744vgmdmj5nxim3zfrf.jpg
20200602.1322.f17.91hw.93A.INVEST.30kts.999mb.16.1N.71.5E.075pc.jpg 20200602.1322.f17.91pct91h91v.93A.INVEST.30kts.999mb.16.1N.71.5E.075pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2020-6-3 11:32 | 顯示全部樓層
底層發展很快
20200603.0156.f17.91pct91h91v.02A.NISARGA.55kts.986mb.17.2N.72.1E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2020-6-3 15:46 | 顯示全部樓層
目前系統正逐漸登陸印度馬哈拉施特拉邦
JTWC06Z升格C1,定強75節,中心最低氣壓975百帕
02A NISARGA 200603 0600 17.9N 72.9E IO 75 975
TPIO11 PGTW 030618

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA)

B. 03/0545Z

C. 17.93N

D. 72.88E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.0 (WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT). ADDED 0.5 FOR BF,
TO YIELD A DT OF 4.5. CONSTRAINTS BKN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0044Z 17.37N 72.17E MMHS
03/0111Z 17.32N 72.30E WIND
03/0156Z 17.37N 72.37E SSMS


RICHARDSON

20200603.0630.msg1.x.vis2km.02ANISARGA.75kts-975mb-179N-729E.100pc.jpg 20200603.0156.f17.91h.02A.NISARGA.55kts.986mb.17.2N.72.1E.100pc.jpg
20200603.0400.msg1.x.vis1km_high.02ANISARGA.55kts-986mb-172N-721E.100pc.jpg 20200603.0156.f17.91hw.02A.NISARGA.55kts.986mb.17.2N.72.1E.100pc.jpg
20200603.0156.f17.91pct91h91v.02A.NISARGA.55kts.986mb.17.2N.72.1E.100pc.jpg
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