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24S.Habana 逐漸減弱

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2021-3-2 08:02 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號:13-20202021 ( 24 S )
名稱:Habana
224728a8i339submmp02sv.jpg
  基本資料     
擾動編號日期:2021 03 02 07
JTWC升格日期:2021 03 04 20
命名日期  :2021 03 04 19
撤編日期  :2021 03 17 14
登陸地點  :


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :110 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):135 kt ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓938 百帕

  擾動編號資料  

90S.INVEST.15kts-1003mb-15S-65E 20210301.2330.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.15S.65E.100pc.jpg
以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2021擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
king111807 + 15 + 1 熱帶擾動首帖

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簽到天數: 1336 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-2 13:07 | 顯示全部樓層
目前GFS較為支持90S的發展,00Z報預測最低氣壓986百帕 90S_tracks_latest.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_io_14.png
20210302.0206.f17.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.15kts.1003mb.15S.65E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-3 19:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC1100Z評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.2S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031011Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A RAGGED
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15-2OKT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND A
SWATH OF 25-30KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 90S IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 90S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AS
IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
20210303.1030.msg-1.vis.90S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.15.2S.65.6E.100pc.jpg LATEST - 2021-03-03T191336.205.jpg
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dom|2021-3-3 21:06 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR認為發展機會頗高 cyclogenese.png

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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 02:06 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級為Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 65.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 67.4E, APPROXIMATELY 576
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031428Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair - 2021-03-04T015602.173.jpg 20210303.1428.f17.91pct91h91v.90S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.15.2S.66.2E.095pc.jpg 90S_gefs_latest (3).png
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 02:50 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC18Z升格TD
90S INVEST 210303 1800 15.6S 67.4E SHEM 25 1002
ir0 (3).gif rbtop0 (4).gif 5D751002090C5F82CD2826603FAA152A.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 06:51 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR編號擾動天氣區第13號,上望中度熱帶風暴
SWI_20202021.png 20210303.2043.gw1.89pct89h89v.90S.INVEST.25kts.1002mb.15.6S.67.4E.88pc.jpg 20210303.2043.gw1.89hbt.90S.INVEST.25kts.1002mb.15.6S.67.4E.88pc.jpg
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老農民版夜神月|2021-3-4 10:14 | 顯示全部樓層
00Z報升格熱帶低壓,MFR並於此報中略微調高了上望,認為可達強烈熱帶風暴,50KT
SWI_20202021 (1).png 13S (1).png
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