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29W 登陸馬來西亞

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-12-13 13:59 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :97 W
擾動編號日期 :2021 12 13 13
撤編日期        :2021 12 00 00
97W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.5.5N.110.7E

20211213.0520.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.5.5N.110.7E.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-15 01:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 109E ALMOST STATIONARY.
20211214143931_0_Z__C_010000_20211214120000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png 20211214.1600.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.5.2N.107.4E.100pc.jpg 97W_tracks_latest (4).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-15 14:59 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.9N
106.9E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL,
150000Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPURATURES,
OFFSET BY LOW-MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK
WESTWARD OVER THE 72 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair (61).jpg 20211215.0610.himawari-8.vis.97W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.6.4N.107.4E.100pc.jpg 20211215.0212.mtb.ASCAT.wind.97W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.59N.1069E.25km.noqc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-16 02:44 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.9N 106.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 107.1E, APPROXIMATELY 357
NM SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 151106Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL PERSIST AND SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
abpwsair (62).jpg 97W_gefs_latest (7).png 97W_b13.gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-17 01:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-12-17 02:27 編輯

即將穿越馬來半島進入馬六甲海峽,數值暫不看好後續發展 20211216144100_0_Z__C_010000_20211216120000_MET_CHT_JCIasas_JCP600x512_JRcolor_T.png 97W_tracks_latest (5).png 97W_gefs_latest (9).png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-17 01:43 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 161730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.4N 105.0E TO 3.8N 100.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.3N 104.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.8N 107.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 104.5E APPROXIMATELY 186
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MUDDLED MESS OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE AND
EAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA. EASTERN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF 28W
(TYPHOON RAI) IS APPLYING SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE TO THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH 97W, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, A 161500Z SHIP OBSERVATION JUST SOUTH OF THE
LLCC REPORTED 23KTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND FLOURISHING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODERATE SHEAR (15-20 KTS). DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE 97W WILL TRACK
WEST OVER THE MALAYAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAIT OF MALACCA. AS
IT STANDS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MINIMAL BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171730Z.
//
NNNN
wp9721 (4).gif 97W_161730sair.jpg 20211216.0640.gw1.89pct89h89v.97W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.4.8N.105.2E.81pc.jpg 97W_b13 (1).gif
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-17 03:04 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC在馬來西亞近岸緊急升格29W
29W TWENTYNINE 211216 1800 4.2N 104.0E WPAC 25 1004
20211216.184000.WP292021.ahi.himawari-8.Infrared-Gray.25kts.100p0.1p0.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-12-17 04:02 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC開始發報
wp2921.gif 29W_161800sair.jpg
WDPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 4.2N 104.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 176 NM NORTH OF SINGAPORE
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER,
WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST. A 161730Z
GPM COLORIZED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE MALAYSIAN COAST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED CENTER, WITH LOW LEVEL SPIRAL BANDING
FEATURES EVIDENT IN THE OTHER QUADRANTS, WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM MALAYSIA IS SHOWING THE FIRST HINTS OF A
ROTATION JUST OFFSHORE NORTHEAST OF KUANTAN. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF T1.5, AS WELL AS
A 161500Z SHIP OBSERVATION, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER,
OF 23 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VWS, WARM SSTS (27-28C) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL PROVE A HINDRANCE TO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF
KUANTAN, MALAYSIA WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL FAVORABLE HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD PROVE A
HINDRANCE TO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO TUCK UNDER THE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST, AND THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO 30 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE
ASHORE, EXPECT STEADY DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24, THOUGH THE SYSTEM COULD
DISSIPATE WELL PRIOR TO THAT AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX
TERRAIN OF THE REGION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NOT SURPRISINGLY FOR A WEAK SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS,
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH A WIDE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS, SOME TACKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN MALACCA STRAIT, WHILE THE NAVGEM TURNS THE SYSTEM SOUTH
AND EAST. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
OBSERVED MOTION VECTOR AND ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING PATTERN. DUE TO
THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST, EVEN IN VIEW OF THE LARGE
SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SOMEWHAT ODDLY ALL INDICATES INTENSIFICATION, EVEN OVER
LAND, THOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE TERRAIN FEATURES.
THUS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS DISCOUNTED AND THE FORECAST RELIES
UPON TRENDS, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
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