霧峰追風者

基本資料  
編號　　　　：02 S
擾動編號日期：2022 年 09 月 26 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
91S.INVEST.15kts-0mb-12.0S-84.0E

霧峰追風者

AWIO20 FMEE 261046

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/09/26 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Next warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 001/01 on tropical depression 01/20222023 to be issued at 12UTC

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin depict a Near Equatorial Talweg (NET) pattern east of 65oE and oriented between 3 and 5oS. The convective activity is moderate and is concentrated near the tropical depression 01/20222023 located at the eastern end of the basin, as well as on the equatorial side of the NET.

Tropical depression 01/20222023 :

Position at 09UTC: 12.7S/83.6E

Displacement : Southwest 8kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 min : 30kt

Minimum pressure at the center : 1001hPa

For more information on this system, refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued at 12UTC and following.

During the next 5 days, there is no risk of another tropical low pressure system forming over the basin.



NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 15Z分析T1.5，18Z升格02S。
TPXS10 PGTW 261451
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 26/1430Z
C. 12.62S
D. 82.45E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   26/1251Z  12.62S  83.02E  SSMS
   SCOTT

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 82.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 82.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 13.2S 80.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 13.3S 78.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 13.7S 75.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 14.3S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 82.1E.
26SEP22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 697 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z AND 272100Z.
//
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霧峰追風者

MFR命名"Ashley"