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01B.Remal

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2024-5-21 19:57 | 顯示全部樓層
  氣旋風暴  
編號:01 B
名稱:REMAL


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 :2024 05 20 14
JTWC升格日期
2024 05 25 20
命名日期   :2024 05 25 20
撤編日期   :2024 00 00 00
登陸地點   :暫無


  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD):40 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):35 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   :984 百帕



  基本資料  

編號    :99 B
擾動編號日期:2024 05 20 14
撤編日期  :2024 05 00 00





99B INVEST 240520 0600 11.5N 82.5E IO 15 1009

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2024-5-22 23:17 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級為LOW
預期將帶動西南季風肇始 值得注意
abpwsair.jpg
  1. (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
  2. 12.5N 81.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM EAST-
  3. NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
  4. DEPICTS A HIGHLY BROAD CIRCULATION AREA OFFSHORE OF CHENNAI, INDIA WITH
  5. SPOTTY CONVECTION. A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED DISPLACED 250 TO
  6. 300 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, INDICATING A DISORGANIZED
  7. SYSTEM. A 211523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE ELLIPTICAL AREA OF TURNING
  8. WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, CONSISTING OF LIGHT EASTERLIES TO THE
  9. NORTH AND A MONSOONAL WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF SRI LANKA WITH 25-30
  10. KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AT THIS
  11. TIME. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
  12. WEAK (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
  13. TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL GET
  14. USHERED EASTWARD BY THE WESTERLY WIND BURST AND THEN HOOK NORTHWARD
  15. OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, GRADUALLY
  16. CONSOLIDATING INTO A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
  17. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
  18. ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
  19. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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krichard2011|2024-5-23 19:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 升格評級至Medium
IMD 上看 SCS 55KT
abpwsair.jpg
TRACKf.png
  1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
  2.       (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
  3. 14.0N 83.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
  4. NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITES
  5. IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION AND POORLY
  6. DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
  7. ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, OFFSET BY GOOD
  8. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
  9. ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99B WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE BAY OF
  10. BENGAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
  11. ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
  12. BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
  13. TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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krichard2011|2024-5-25 23:02 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD 升格 Cyclonic Storm
JTWC 亦升格TS 01B
從衛星雲圖來看
整體環流相當廣大

irnm5.gif
io0124.gif
442502599_7648603381891094_3208533989758139178_n.jpg
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krichard2011|2024-5-26 09:20 | 顯示全部樓層
IMD升40KT
目前上看60KT
track2518.png
  1. WTIN31 DEMS 252130
  2. QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH REMAL OVER BAY OF
  3. BENGAL ON
  4. 1800 UTC OF 25-05-2024 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:
  5. PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 251800
  6. PRESENT POSITION: 19.3ON/89.4OE
  7. POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM
  8. PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 349/05KT
  9. PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  10. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 KT, GUSTS 50 KT
  11. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 55 NM
  12. W INDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT
  13. RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT
  14. W IND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  15. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
  16.        210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  17.        200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  18.        180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  19.        150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  20. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
  21.        130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  22.        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  23.        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  24.        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  25. FORECASTS:
  26. 06 HRS, VALID AT:
  27. 260000Z 20ON/89.4OE
  28. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 KT, GUSTS 60 KT
  29. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
  30.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  31.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  32.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  33.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  34. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
  35.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  36.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  37.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  38.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  39. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
  40.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  41.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  42.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  43.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  44. 12 HRS, VALID AT:
  45. 260600Z 20.7ON/89.3OE
  46. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT
  47. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
  48.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  49.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  50.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  51.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  52. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
  53.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  54.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  55.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  56.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  57. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
  58.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  59.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  60.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  61.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  62. 18 HRS, VALID AT:
  63. 261200Z 21.4ON/89.3OE
  64. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
  65. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
  66.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  67.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  68.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  69.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  70. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
  71.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  72.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  73.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  74.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  75. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
  76.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  77.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  78.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  79.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  80. 24 HRS, VALID AT:
  81. 261800Z 22ON/89.3OE
  82. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT
  83. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
  84.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  85.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  86.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  87.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  88. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
  89.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  90.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  91.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  92.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  93. RADIUS OF 050KT WINDS:
  94.       75 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  95.       65 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  96.       65 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  97.       60 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  98. 36 HRS, VALID AT:
  99. 270600Z 23.2ON/89.7OE
  100. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT
  101. RADIUS OF 027KT WINDS:
  102.       210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  103.       200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  104.       180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  105.       150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  106. RADIUS OF 034KT WINDS:
  107.       130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  108.       110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  109.       100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  110.       100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  111. 48 HRS, VALID AT:
  112. 271800Z 24.3ON/90.3OE
  113. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=
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