jwpk9899

  基本資料  
    編號　　　　：97 P
    擾動編號日期：2013 年 12 月 24 日 04 時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 12 月 28 日 20 時
　登陸地點　　：暫無
97P.INVEST_15kts-1010mb-10.9S-168.0E

martin191919

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 23/2309 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1008HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 10.5S 168.0E
AT 232100UTC SLOW MOVING.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY
GOOD OUTLFOW TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTHEAST.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.                               

martin191919

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 26/2153 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 174.5E
AT 262100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER PAST 12
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 850HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.