06L.Edouard 速報升C3 北大西睽違兩年首MH!

krichard2011 · 2014-9-7 13:39

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-10-14 14:37 編輯

  三級颶風
編號：06 L
名稱：Edouard

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 09 月 07 日 12 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 09 月 12 日 08 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 09 月 22 日 04 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：  100   kts  (  CAT.3  )
海平面最低氣壓       ：  955 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
91L.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-9.5N-15.0W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011 · 2014-9-7 13:59

NHC評Low 不過型成機率仍只有0%
GFS 則預測前途一片看好...
看起來也可能會是個猛貨@@

3. A weak trough of low pressure over Georgia is producing disorganized
cloudiness and showers from north Florida to the coastal waters of
the Carolinas. Development of this system is unlikely while it
drifts northeastward over the coastal sections of Georgia and the
Carolinas during the next couple of days. After that time, this low
is expected to merge with a frontal zone over the western Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

krichard2011 · 2014-9-7 16:25

剛剛疑似NHC順序錯亂...
稍早已修正剛剛0%的那個應該是在佛州附近的那隻
這個擾動5天成旋機率高達60%
An extensive area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is
associated with a large tropical wave that has recently emerged
off of the coast of Africa just west of Guinea. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

t02436 · 2014-9-7 20:16

西非熱帶波出海發展
NHC升30%

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave
that recently emerged off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it moves
westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

目前數值皆看好發展

t02436 · 2014-9-11 20:26

經過五天發展
NHC提升至High

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has become
better organized during the past several hours. If current trends
continue, a tropical depression could form later today or tonight
while the low moves toward the west-northwest and northwest at about
15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

美國海軍發佈TCFA

t02436 · 2014-9-11 23:36

升格06L
首報保守上望70KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 16.2N  37.1W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  12/0000Z 17.1N  38.5W 35 KT  40 MPH
24H  12/1200Z 18.2N  40.7W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/0000Z 19.3N  42.9W 45 KT  50 MPH
48H  13/1200Z 20.5N  44.9W 50 KT  60 MPH
72H  14/1200Z 23.5N  48.5W 55 KT  65 MPH
96H  15/1200Z 26.5N  51.5W 60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 29.0N  53.0W 70 KT  80 MPH

t02436 · 2014-9-12 13:30

00Z命名
03Z第三報上望75KT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 17.3N  39.4W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  12/1200Z 18.1N  41.1W 40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/0000Z 19.0N  43.3W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  13/1200Z 20.3N  45.2W 45 KT  50 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 21.5N  47.0W 55 KT  65 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 24.0N  50.5W 65 KT  75 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 27.0N  53.5W 75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 30.0N  55.5W 75 KT  85 MPH

krichard2011 · 2014-9-14 00:49

這個系幒對流雖看似貧弱
不過結構整體來說還算不錯
NHC 後期仍上看 80KT

INIT  13/1500Z 21.7N  46.9W 45 KT  50 MPH
12H  14/0000Z 22.7N  48.3W 50 KT  60 MPH
24H  14/1200Z 24.2N  50.5W 55 KT  65 MPH
36H  15/0000Z 25.7N  52.6W 65 KT  75 MPH
48H  15/1200Z 27.1N  55.0W 75 KT  85 MPH
72H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W 80 KT  90 MPH
96H  17/1200Z 35.0N  55.0W 80 KT  90 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 40.0N  47.5W 75 KT  85 MPH