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01S.Adjali 南半球年度首旋 強度不如預期

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2014-11-14 21:11 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-11-25 22:57 編輯

  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號:01-20142015 ( 95S → 01S )
名稱:Adjali




  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2014 11 14 20
命名日期  :2014 11 17 02
消散日期  :2014 11 20 02

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速及
最低氣壓
法國氣象局 (MFR):  
55  kt
美國海軍 (JTWC)  :  65  kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓
986 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  
95S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.1S.68.1E



以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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大大問題是目前那邊環境氣候不佳,是有機會但不是很大一半要靠運氣。  發表於 2014-11-16 15:48

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 15 贊一個!

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-11-16 16:51 | 顯示全部樓層
本年度南半球首個熱帶系統正式成形,為「熱帶擾動 1 號」,強度上望強烈熱帶風暴。



WTIO30 FMEE 160645
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/1/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  1
2.A POSITION 2014/11/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.2 S / 66.5 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1005 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/16 18 UTC: 9.0 S / 67.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/11/17 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/11/17 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 68.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2014/11/18 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 68.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 66.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM, LOCATED ABOUT 650 KM WEST OF THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO, HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. LATEST GEOSTAT VIS IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. MW IMAGERY OF T
HIS MORNING REVEAL AN IMPROVING ORGANISATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. CURRENT POSIT
ION IS BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT-A OF 0448Z. THE INTENSITU ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE ES
TIMATES FROM PGTW AND SAB (RESP. AT 1.5 AND 2.0 AT 0530Z).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MON
SOON SIDE AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ON THE POOR SIDE, ONE CAN NOTE A POOR LEW LEVEL CONVERG
ENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT (WEAK PRESSURE FIELD ON THAT SIDE WITH A RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM) AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOMORROW TO BECOME NEARLY EXCELLENT TUESDAY (ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVE
R THE SOUTHERN SIDE TOMORROW - WEAK SHEAR - ENHANCEMENT OF THE UPPERLEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUT
HERN SIDE)
BEYOND THAT TIME, DRY AIR INTRUSION AND A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TH
E SYSTEM. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR (AT TAU 72H) IS UNCERTAIN (SEEN ON ECMWF NWP FIELDS BUT NOT ON
ALADIN FIELDS WHICH STRENGHEN THE SYSTEM UP TO 85 KT TUESDAY AT 06Z !)

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-11-16 17:30 | 顯示全部樓層
長得好像風眼的對流空洞⋯⋯分析 2.0,這在某個大洋是有機會命名的,不過在西南印度洋得等到 3.0。

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J18
謝謝:-)  發表於 2014-11-17 20:30
這真的很令人驚奇的發展必竟他原所處的位置風切是那麼的大。  發表於 2014-11-17 17:00
南半球使用十分鐘持續風速的機構,德法對應都直接乘以大約 0.9,所以 T3.0 才會到命名標準。  發表於 2014-11-16 23:15
J18
T值。  發表於 2014-11-16 22:50
什麼這樣分?  發表於 2014-11-16 19:54
這螺旋型態很好,像TS  發表於 2014-11-16 18:41
J18
為甚麼要這樣分?  發表於 2014-11-16 18:08
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-11-16 21:03 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-11-16 21:05 編輯

MFR 很看好發展,已分析 CI2.5,距離命名不遠了,上望最大風速 80 節的熱帶氣旋。



WTIO30 FMEE 161235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20142015
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  1
2.A POSITION 2014/11/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.6 S / 66.7 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 90 NW: 170
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 00 UTC: 9.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/17 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2014/11/18 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/18 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 68.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 68.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/11/19 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/20 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/11/21 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
SINCE 08Z, THE SYSTEM SHOW EVIDENT SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION THA
T WRAPS AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTER. PRESSURE DATA FROM BUOY 14040 WAS USEFUL TO ESTIMAT
E THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF ALL THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE E
STIMATE (PGTW AT 1.5 AND SAB AT 2.5 AT 1130Z) ... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM BECOME A TRO
PICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSO
ON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK" SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW S
HEAR NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR NEAR
LY EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND WITH A GENESIS PROCESS COMPLETED RIGHT N
OW, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS IN THIS PACKAGE AND NOW IS CLOSE TO THE ALADI
N-REUNION FORECAST.
BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONT
AIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE IMPACT OF THE DRY AIR, AS A FIRST REASON OF WEAKENING,
IS NOW EXCLUDED REGARDS TO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

JTWC 也發布了 TCFA,雖然是有點晚。



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S
66.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 66.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A MORE DEFINED, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A
161008 AMSU-B MICROWAVE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH OFFSETS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE LEVEL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-11-17 02:56 | 顯示全部樓層
命名 Adjiali,仍上望熱帶氣旋上限,有構建雲捲風眼跡象。



WTIO30 FMEE 161836
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 21 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.8 S / 66.7 E
(EIGHT    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/17 06 UTC: 9.9 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2014/11/17 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2014/11/18 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2014/11/18 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 67.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2014/11/19 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2014/11/19 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVE THE LAST HOURS WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION ORGAN
IZED IN CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CENTRE (TEMPORARY HOT SPOT).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING: WET ENVIRONMENT, GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE MONSO
ON SIDE (AND IMPROVING ON THE "WEAK" SOUTH-EAST QUADRANT), GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A LOW S
HEAR NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE. ON THIS TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD OR NEAR
LY EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND THAT TIME, A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH LOW
ER OCEANIC HEAT CONTAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

另外美軍也升到熱帶風暴編號 01S,直接評價最大風速 40 節。

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2014-11-17 19:50 | 顯示全部樓層

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西南印度洋都是法語名字,這次是葛摩提交的女子名。  發表於 2014-11-17 20:42
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2014-11-17 21:04 | 顯示全部樓層
11 月 17 日的 Adjali,Aqua 拍攝。


https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 014-11-17_0920Z.jpg

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Meow|2014-11-18 03:14 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 基於系統小,打破 CI 半天內不能下降的限制評價 T/CI3.5,風速下調到 50 節。垂直風切較預期些微增強,導致核心明顯破損,一天之內的巔峰強度也難以預測。

然而美國調升最大風速到 60 節。

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