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07F(92P) 遭Ula併吞

簽到天數: 3160 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2015-12-25 13:25 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料     
編號    :05 F→ 07 F ( 92 P )
擾動編號日期:2015 12 25 14
撤編日期  :2016 01 03 00
92P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.0S.165.0E

20151225.0250.himawari8.x.vis2km.92PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-80S-1650E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 2水氣能量 +25 收起 理由
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-27 00:09 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-27 00:58 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS 06Z編號05F
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 2103 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.1S 164.2E AT
260600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREE CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT EASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-29 15:22 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC於昨天06Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S
165.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


FMS 21Z另外編號07F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.1S 160.2E AT
282100UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREE CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT EASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-30 23:01 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7S 176.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301026Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 300932Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOT) WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

92P_gefs_latest.png

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-1-1 16:48 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS升格熱帶低壓
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.8S 177.9E AT
010600UTC MOVING SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2016-1-2 17:21 | 顯示全部樓層
:o 07F熱帶性低氣壓目前雖然處於中緯度海面,但它結構完整螺旋情況良好前景看好不過目前它東南東方有隻旋風在搶水氣短期間內發展仍然會受到限制。
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