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08S.Corentin 漸入高緯 逐漸轉化

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2016-1-18 18:07 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-1-20 07:52 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-1-20 16:20 | 顯示全部樓層
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-1-20 23:26 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC發布TCFA
sh9016.gif

MFR升格熱帶擾動3號
預估24小時之內命名Corentin,巔峰上望75節
ZCZC 347
WTIO30 FMEE 201238 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE  3
2.A POSITION 2016/01/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 77.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL
TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/21 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2016/01/21 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 73.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/01/22 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/01/22 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 70.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2016/01/23 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 70.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/23 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 26.7 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0-
NNNN

SWI_20152016.png

20160120.1500.meteo-7.ircolor.90S.INVEST.30kts.997mb.14.9S.77E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-1-21 18:00 | 顯示全部樓層
06Z升格熱帶低壓,保守估計等等12Z就會命名了。
ZCZC 704
WTIO30 FMEE 210638
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  3
2.A POSITION 2016/01/21 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 74.6 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 590 SW: 560 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/21 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/01/22 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/22 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2016/01/23 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/23 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/24 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/25 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/26 06 UTC: 28.1 S / 73.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CLEARLY IMPROVED WITH
THE EMERGENCE OF A CURVED BAND, BECOMING BETTER AND BETTER DEFINED.
AT 06Z, THIS BAND IS WRAPING AROUND A GOOD HALF OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH IS WORTH T=2.5 IN DVORAK ANALYSIS. 0340Z AND 0430Z
ASCAT SWATHS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOW WINDS
RANGING FROM 30KT UP TO 35KT, EVEN REACHING LOCALLY 40KT. THIS
SUGGESTS DVORAK ANALYSIS COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE SYSTEM
INTENSITY. ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SUGGEST
THAT TWO EVACUATION CHANNELS ARE PROGRESSIVELY APPEARING, ONE IN THE
NORTH AND ONE IN THE SOUTH.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD, OVER THE
NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
WHILE REMAINING UNDER A CELL OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN WITHOUT ANY PARTICULAR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONSTRAINTS.
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, AHEAD OF A POLAR TROUGH, THE LOW WILL DRAW BENEFIT FROM GOOD
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND DEEPEN QUITE RAPIDLY.
CONSEQUENTLY, IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS
EAST, AND TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON FRIDAY, AND BEND SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, THE NORTH-WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND THE OHC DECREASE SOUTH OF
27S. THE LOW MAY WEAKEN AND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FROM
SUNDAY EVENING. THE WEAKENED SYSTEM MAY MOVE TEMPORARILY WESTWARD
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS, IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT.=
NNNN

SWI_20152016.png

20160121.0930.meteo-7.ircolor.90S.INVEST.30kts.994mb.15.5S.74.8E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-1-21 20:03 | 顯示全部樓層
已在09Z由模里西斯命名Corentin。
TRACK MTS CORENTIN.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-1-21 21:00 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR 12Z正報的Corentin,巔峰上望70節。
** WTIO30 FMEE 211230 RRA ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/3/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  3  (CORENTIN)
2.A POSITION 2016/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8 S / 74.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL
THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :111 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 610 SE: 590 SW: 560 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 430 SE: 190 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2016/01/22 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2016/01/22 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2016/01/23 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2016/01/23 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2016/01/24 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 71.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2016/01/24 12 UTC: 26.6 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2016/01/25 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2016/01/26 12 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

SWI_20152016.png

JTWC升格08S
08S.INVEST.35kts.996mb.15.9S.73.6E

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-1-22 12:30 | 顯示全部樓層


今天整合其實已經有比較好了. 風場也不差.

MFR和GFS的預報.
08S_geps_00z.png


SWI_20152016.png


20160122.0400.meteo-7.ir.08S.CORENTIN.55kts.982mb.17.9S.73.2E.100pc.jpg



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