t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.8S 138.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 140023Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. THE
850MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES A SYMMETRICAL SIGNATURE AND
MORNINGTON ISLAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A 2MB, 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL
INDICATING A STRENGTHENING TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD AND STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LESS FAVORABLE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE LLCC, CURRENTLY OVER LAND, WILL
WANDER OVER THE WARM (31C) WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

陳約禮@FB

JTWC升格MEDIUM


螺旋隱現

tpm630

JTWC評級medium報文

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZMAR2016//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
137.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 138.7E, APPROXIMATELY 30 NM WEST
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A 150003Z
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERY HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (31 TO 32 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER THE
PROXIMITY TO LAND IS PROHIBITING FASTER DEVELOPMENT. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND AIRPORT INDICATE WINDS
MAINTAINING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT INCREASING
LAND INTERACTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

高層流出相當良好



高SST



螺旋性良好，渦度泛白



垂直風切整體算尚可(20kts)，不過南方風切甚強



底層的話還早...




系集方面，CMS竟認為可能會穿越約克角半島，並且直逼紐西蘭...



GFS認為較可能會長期在卡奔塔利亞灣打轉




入夜後對流持續爆發，螺旋性良好，但實在太靠近陸地了...

t02436

BoM準備編正式號，看好在卡灣內獲得命名

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 pm AEST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.6 degrees South, 138.4 degrees East , 150 kilometres northwest of Mornington Island and 355 kilometres west of Kowanyama .
Movement: east southeast at 9 kilometres per hour .

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday morning as it approaches Cape York Peninsula.


Hazards:

GALES may develop between the NT/Queensland border and Cape Keerweer.


Recommended Action:

People between the NT/Queensland border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

陳約禮@FB

WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZMAR2016//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 140.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 140.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 16.7S 141.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 16.8S 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 140.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
AREA OF BROAD FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED RADAR FROM MORNINGTON
ISLAND SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC, GIVING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE FIXING AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 31 CELSIUS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 12, THEN
DISSIPATE OVER CAPE YORK BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, BUT DIVERGES AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES OVER LAND THEREAFTER. THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR THE REMNANTS OF TC 16P TO REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA OR CONTINUE EAST TO THE CORAL SEA IN THE COMING
DAYS. IN THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REDEVELOP FOLLOWING THE
ANTICIPATED NEAR-TERM DISSIPATION OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA.
DUE TO THE SHORT LIVED DURATION OF TC 16P AND TIGHT MODEL
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 152000).//
NNNN

JTWC於03:00Z升格TS，預估登陸後消散

接近陸地，對流依舊猛烈




輻散相當良好

tpm630

14U(16P)移速頗快，已在稍早將近傍晚6點登陸約克角半島






生長空間真的很小，移速又不慢，結果最後澳洲氣象局連命名都沒有。

14U可說是浪費了優良生長環境：附近水氣充足、卡灣OHC高得嚇人、最重要的是高層流出好的不得了，把陸地去除的話這種環境很有機會成為頂級颱風。






登陸前後底層一度有建立的趨勢



路徑上昨天GFS還預測回馬槍在卡灣內打轉，今天GFS、EC、澳洲氣象局等一致改成穿越約克角半島



其中EC支持出海後在南太再度發展，氣壓最低986hpa




但是目前的變數是，登陸後的偏北分量遲遲不出現，這會增加陸地穿越距離和破壞程度。感覺是登陸後結構受破壞，附近風切開始增強、系統一直被南拉




因此14U到底能不能撐過去不撤編，有點越來越沒信心了...

數值預報還是看看就好

老J最新報，已經是final warning