(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.9N 146.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 335
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO
EVIDENT IN A 202143Z SSMIS PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL
MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND A SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.