2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 109.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 165
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041429Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
041430Z ASCAT PASS SHOW ISOLATED 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29C), LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OR MOVE OVER LAND
TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
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