(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N
111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, CHINA. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM
DIAMETER, WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK
CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
AS WELL AS A 180212Z METOP-C 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 170216Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
REVEALS 25 KT WINDS ALONG THE CHINESE COAST TO THE EAST OF HAINAN,
WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 200NM. THE ASCAT AS WELL
AS THE MSI SUGGEST POCKETS OF ENHANCED ROTATION AND VORTICITY ALONG
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED WINDS, IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CIRCULATION, WRAPPING UP THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL VWS (20KTS) AS WELL AS A LACK OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
OFFSET BY WARM SSTS OF (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION 91W WILL NOT
CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE A SLUGGISH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS
HAINAN ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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