JTWC發布FW

WTXS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 31.9S 69.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.9S 69.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 33.0S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 32.2S 69.2E.
26FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
961 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S WITH A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NOW ENTIRELY VOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 261640Z METOP-C ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40 KTS WITHIN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOW ANALYZED TO BE OVER 50 KTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22-23 C, CREATING
A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS RIDGING BREIFLY EXTENDS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE VORTEX. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COMPELTE
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12 AS THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO SHALLOW
OUT AND WEAKEN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 261800Z IS 995
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 20 FEET.//
NNNN

JTWC降格TS

WTXS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 31.8S 69.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.8S 69.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 32.4S 69.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 33.5S 68.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 32.0S 69.2E. 26FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z.//
NNNN

JTWC降格C1

WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 27.8S 66.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S 66.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 30.3S 67.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 31.8S 68.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 32.4S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 33.2S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 35.5S 69.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 66.6E.
25FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
676 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 250600Z IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN

JTWC降格C2

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 24.9S 64.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 64.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 27.8S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 30.3S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 31.6S 68.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 32.1S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 33.9S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 65.2E.
24FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
510 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 241800Z IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250900Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN

MFR降格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 241233
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 64.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 26.5 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 29.5 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/26 00 UTC: 31.6 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

48H: 2026/02/26 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 280 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

60H: 2026/02/27 00 UTC: 32.3 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110

72H: 2026/02/27 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/28 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 215

120H: 2026/03/01 12 UTC: 37.3 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0+ CI=5.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, HORACIO'S EYE PATTERN PERSISTED WITH COLDER
TOPS BUT A WARMER EYE. THE 0932Z GCOMW PASS CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH EYE WALL, LINKED TO THE INCREASING DEEP
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ARE
CURRENTLY LIMITING THE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF THIS CONSTRAINT. IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES CLOSE TO 5.0,
HORACIO'S INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 85KT.

HORACIO'S TRACK HAS STARTED TO BEND SOUTH-EASTWARD, ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, THE
TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING OF A LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT SLOW DOWN AND CAUSE A TEMPORARY WESTWARD
TURN. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES AWAY TO THE EAST, MOVEMENT SHOULD RESUME
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, BETWEEN A RIDGE STRENGTHENING
TO THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
SPREAD IS LOW AMONG THE GUIDANCES.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY DETERIORATE, WITH AN INCREASING SHEAR PARTIALLY OFFSET BY A
VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE SOUTH. THE
INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ON WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE EFFECT OF
A STRONG INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HORACIO COULD LOSE SOME OF ITS TROPICAL FEATURES.
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE, FAVORING A DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHEAR ON FRIDAY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RENEWED INTENSIFICATION DUE TO EXCESSIVELY
COLD SURFACE WATERS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, EVOLVING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

NO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND.

JTWC降格C4

WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 22.5S 64.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 64.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 24.9S 64.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 27.8S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 30.3S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 31.5S 67.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 32.4S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 35.0S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 64.4E.
24FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
417 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 240600Z IS 941 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
242100Z AND 250900Z.//
NNNN

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