king111807

  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號：10 U ( 11 S )
名稱：Lggy

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 14 時
JTWC升格日期:2026 年 01 月 01 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2026 年 01 月 01 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 01 月 04 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：40 kts
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：45 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   ：997 百帕

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科

  擾動編號資料  
90S.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-8.0S-101.5E

以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

BoM編號10U

Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low (10U) forming southwest of Sumatra, to bring increase in showers and winds at Christmas Island on Thursday.
A tropical low (10U) is forming in the monsoon trough southwest of Sumatra, north of the Australian Region.
The low will move to the southeast crossing 10S into the Australian Region near Christmas Island early Thursday.
Christmas Island can expect increased rainfall and possibly strong winds during Thursday.
Although some guidance suggests development, at this stage 10U has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone between Wednesday night and Sunday.
By Saturday the system should slow and most likely take a westward track from Sunday onwards over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
Residents of Christmas Island should monitor forecast updates.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 11:20 am AEDT

king111807

JTWC直接評級Medium

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S
102.7E, APPROXIMATELY 218 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD
FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301506Z ASCAT REVEALED AN AREA OF SHARP TROUGHING WITH 20-25
KNOT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
FOR  THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20
KTS), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

king111807

JTWC發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 311330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 104.8E TO 14.2S 112.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.0S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.3S 102.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310854Z 37 GHZ GMI IMAGE EMPHASIZES
THE CLOUD BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WARM (29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011330Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 165.2W.
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king111807

JTWC升格11S

WTXS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 107.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 107.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 13.8S 109.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 14.7S 110.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 15.3S 111.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 15.7S 110.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 16.4S 108.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 108.2E.
01JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

king111807

BoM升格澳式C1，命名Lggy

Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U) lies over open waters well to the northwest of the WA mainland.

Area affected
Warning zone
None.

Watch zone
None.

Cancelled zone
None.

At 2:00 pm Australian Western Standard Time
At 2:00 pm AWST

Intensity
category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour

Location
within 45 kilometres of 12.9 degrees South, 108.0 degrees East, 370 kilometres southeast of Christmas Island and 1200 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth

Movement
south southeast at 16 kilometres per hour

Tropical Cyclone Iggy (10U) lies over open waters well to the northwest of the WA mainland and well to the southeast of Christmas Island.

Iggy is likely to continue to develop until Saturday morning as it moves towards the southeast. Later during Saturday Iggy is then expected to slow and turn to the west, away from the WA mainland, and begin weakening. As a small system Iggy is likely to respond quickly to changes in the environment and intensifying further to become a severe tropical cyclone is a possibility.

Iggy is likely to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity during Sunday as is moves west over open waters.

Hazards

There are no impacts expected from Iggy to the WA mainland or any island communities.

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTXS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY) WARNING NR 009   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 108.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 108.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 16.8S 106.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 107.7E.
02JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SHORT WAVE INFRARED
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
NOTHING BUT STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE. A FEW
TWITCHES OF CONVECTION AT LONG INTERVALS HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST
TWO DAYS BUT THEY COLLAPSE AND FADE QUICKLY.  THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY
ON LIFE SUPPORT, SUPPORTED ONLY BY THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY
CAUSED BY THE SEASONAL SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE EASTERLIES
IS WRAPPING INTO THE CORE AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PRIMARY
CAUSE OF DEATH, BUT THE LLCC OF IGGY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VISIBLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS IT SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY EXPIRES.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN