WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 8.4N 127.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 127.2E
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N
131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SUBOPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
