開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

01W 長途跋涉 無緣成為今年首颱 - JMA:TD[W]

查看數: 13602 評論數: 22 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2017-1-6 10:50

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-1-17 16:29 編輯   熱帶低壓   編號:01 W 名稱:無 以上資料來自:CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

s6815711 發表於 2017-1-16 18:39
看了一下內文 登陸地應該是越南的胡志明市南端
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 106.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING, FULLY-EXPOSED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, CONSISTENT
WITH THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE. TD 01W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM BY TAU
12. DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 6 FEET.//
NNNN



alu 發表於 2017-1-15 16:49
請問一下,甚麼情狀下熱帶擾動減弱後又增強用原名?去年1619艾利減弱後又增強卻要改名?:dizzy:
周子堯@FB 發表於 2017-1-15 09:14
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2017-1-15 09:26 編輯

風速又增到30KTS了,JTWC 03z2二度編為01W
latestNWP.png

wp0117.gif




dom 發表於 2017-1-14 21:32
現時 01w 站的位置有點 ... ...
西太-風切.GIF
jwpk9899 發表於 2017-1-14 13:49
JTWC再度發布TCFA
wp0117.gif
ben811018 發表於 2017-1-14 10:49
himawari-8_band_03_sector_03.gif

雖然被切得支離破碎
但低層環流中心還是相當明顯

s6815711 發表於 2017-1-14 08:55
01Z已提升至High
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 111.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY
260NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 132249Z SSMIS COLOR COMPOSITE
IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE WEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT DATA INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE VWS, AND SST VALUES OF 27-28C.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE
COAST OF VIETNAM, OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
abpwsair.jpg

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表