B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 030114Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH
ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A 030020Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
KOROR, PALAU REVEAL A SLP VALUE NEAR 1004MB WITH A 1.2MB 24-HOUR
DECREASE IN SLP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW
DEVELOPMENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
