按美國定位，Dineo已經抵達辛巴威，風速評價仍有45kt，登陸超過1天還有完整環流和頗具規模的深對流。

2月15日位處巔峰的熱帶氣旋Dineo即將登陸莫三比克/莫桑比克伊尼揚巴內省。

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 017-02-15_1115Z.jpg

MFR評價65節，正式站上熱帶氣旋，可惜即將要登陸了...

** WTIO30 FMEE 151249 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20162017
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (DINEO)

2.A POSITION 2017/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 36.3 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY SIX
DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 330 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 34.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, INLAND
24H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 32.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
36H: 2017/02/17 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 30.7 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, INLAND




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE LAST 3 HOURS, CONVECTION PRESENTS A NICE
CURVED BANDING. DINEO HAS NOW REACHED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE.
1000Z AMSR2 MW IMAGES CONFIRM THIS PATTERN AND ANALYSIS.

DINEO IS STILL HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PRESENTS
A WESTWARD UPTURN LATER THAN EXPECTED BEFORE. THE LANDFALL ON THE
MOZAMBIQUE COASTS IS STILL FORECAST AT AROUND 18UTC NORTH OF
INHAMBANE, A BIT MORE SOUTH THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED.

THE GRADUALLY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT HOURS
BEFORE THE LANDFALL, GIVEN THE STILL CONDUCIVE UPPER ENVIRONMENT.
ACCORDING TO THIS SCENARIO, DINEO IS A VERY DANGEROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM
FOR THE INHAMBANE REGION. THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALLS ARE AWAITED IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, ONSHORE AS WELL AS INLAND.

THE STORM SURGE IS ESTIMATED AT 1M FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS. THIS
SURGE COULD REACH 2M IN THE BAY OF INHAMBANE, AND EVEN LOCALLY 3M AT
THE BOTTOM OF THE BAY. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT NOR THE SET-UP OF THE SWELL. THE TOTAL STORM
SURGE AMPLITUDE COULD THUS BE HIGHER AS THE HIGH TIDE (3M20) IS ALSO
OCCURRING AT 1744Z.=

法國氣象局升格強烈熱帶風暴，預測強烈熱帶氣旋登陸莫三比克（莫桑比克），Inhambane或將有3米高風暴潮。

1. WTIO30 FMEE 140710
   
2. 
   
3. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
   
4. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
   
5. 
   
6. 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/5/20162017
   
7. 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DINEO)
   
8. 
   
9. 2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 0600 UTC:
   
10. WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.8 E
    
11. (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
    
12. MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
    
13. 
    
14. 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
    
15. 
    
16. 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
    
17. 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
    
18. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :41 KM
    
19. 
    
20. 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
    
21. 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 260 SW: 150 NW: 130
    
22. 34 KT NE: 200 SE: 200 SW: 70 NW: 70
    
23. 48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50
    
24. 
    
25. 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
    
26. 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
    
27. 
    
28. 1.B FORECASTS:
    
29. 12H: 2017/02/14 18 UTC: 22.9 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
    
30. 24H: 2017/02/15 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
31. 36H: 2017/02/15 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 35.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
32. 48H: 2017/02/16 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 34.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, INLAND
    
33. 60H: 2017/02/16 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 32.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
    
34. 72H: 2017/02/17 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 29.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
    
35. 
    
36. 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
    
37. 96H: 2017/02/18 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 22.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
    
38. 
    
39. 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
    
40. T=CI=3.5+
    
41. 
    
42. THE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING SINCE THIS MORNING WITH AN IMPROVING INNER CORE AS SEN ON MW PASS OF THIS MORNING AND A BUILDING EYE NOW SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS FAIRLY WELL SUPPORTED BY CONGRUENT INDEPENDENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, A SATCON AT 53 KT (1- MIN WIND) AT 0356Z AND AN ADT ALSO AT 53 KT (1-MIN WINDS) AT 0530 UTC.
    
43. 
    
44. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-WEST OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHARE THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY. AT 36H RANGE, A LANDFALL IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE IN MOZAMBIQUE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST EXTEND THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA BETWEEN VILANCULOS TO THE NORTH DOW TO XAI-XAI SOUTHWARDS.
    
45. 
    
46. THE SOUTH-WESTERLY CONSTRAINT THAT HAS AFFECTED THE SYSTEM LAST NIGHT DOES NOT SEEM TO CURRENTLY IMPACT THE INNER-CORE AND A SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO HIGH OCEANIC CONTAIN.
    
47. 
    
48. THE THREAT IS BUILDING FOR THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS LIKELY WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. STORM SURGE UP TO 2 TO 3M IS POSSIBLE NEAR INHAMBANE. SOUTHWARDS, NEAR QUISSICO, STORM SURGE UP TO 1M50 TO 2M IS POSSIBLE. BEWARE THAT THIS VALUE DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE TIDE EFFECT.

複製代碼

看一下05S的綜觀環境。目前正經過一個海洋暖渦，低層水氣也相當充足，赤向氣流的水氣源源不絕的提供進來。
200hPa高層外流也已經非常明顯。




(RAMMB)







(NCEP GFS 021400Z預報場 初始場)


EC和NCEP都看好未來環境支持整合，很可能會近岸爆發，莫三比克要小心了






(NCEP GFS 021512Z預報場)

現在開始嘗試更大更厚的眼牆了，待東南側副高建立後就會開始加速移動、加速增強。

18Z預報巔峰上望90節，00Z雖小降到85節，但仍看好達到ITC。

ZCZC 655
WTIO30 FMEE 140012 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20162017
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  5  (DINEO)
2.A POSITION 2017/02/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 39.4 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE
DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/02/14 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/02/15 00 UTC: 22.6 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2017/02/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2017/02/16 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 35.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, INLAND
60H: 2017/02/16 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 33.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
NNNN