t02436

補昨12Z MFR編號報文

WTIO30 FMEE 021322
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20162017
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  6
2.A POSITION 2017/03/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 60.1 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY    DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/03 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2017/03/03 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2017/03/04 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/04 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/05 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/03/05 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/06 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2017/03/07 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION INSIDE OF
WHICH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEFINE A CENTER PRECISELY. THE ASCAT SWATH
ENABLES TO ESTIMATE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 20KT FAR FROM THE CENTER,
WHICH MAY LOCALLY REACH 25KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG
CONVECTIVE BURSTS CONCERN THE SOUTH-WEST SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBED
AREA.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS DRIVEN BY A NORTHEASTERN RIDGE, BENDING
GRADUALLY THE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE MASCARENES
ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM
ARE FLUCTUATING ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THIS TRACK, WITH A POSSIBLE MORE
WESTWARD ORIENTATION. INDEED, A 500HPA RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR MIGHT INFLUENCE THE TRACK FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE
RECENT RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SCENARIOS OF THE ECMWF'S
ENSEMBLIST FORECAST. A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ALL CONDUCIVE FOR A SUSTAINED AND
CONTINUOUS INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS, IT SHOULD REACH THE
STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THE END OF RANGE.=

00Z路徑預測圖

Meow

ECMWF和GFS預測繼續分歧：前者再次西調掠過馬達加斯加東岸，後者以高強度直撲留尼旺。

s6815711

18Z時評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.3S 69.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 010450Z ASCAT PASS, AND A 011431Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND MODERATE, BUT DECREASING,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MULTIPLE MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

s6815711

JTWC 20Z評級提升至Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 69.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
281410Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC).  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 27C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Meow

ECMWF最新預測太恐怖⋯⋯