簽到天數: 4453 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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s6815711|2017-3-5 15:41
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03Z評級提升至Low
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.4S 81.5E, APPROXIMATELY 615 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 042054Z AMSU-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
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