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t02436|2017-3-27 11:29
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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0119 UTC 27/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.1S
Longitude: 150.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [199 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/T4.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/0600: 19.5S 150.1E: 025 [050]: 070 [130]: 970
+12: 27/1200: 19.6S 149.6E: 040 [070]: 080 [150]: 961
+18: 27/1800: 19.9S 148.9E: 050 [095]: 090 [165]: 953
+24: 28/0000: 20.2S 148.2E: 065 [120]: 080 [150]: 963
+36: 28/1200: 20.6S 146.7E: 085 [155]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 29/0000: 21.3S 145.4E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 1001
+60: 29/1200: 22.1S 145.2E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 999
+72: 30/0000: 23.4S 146.7E: 140 [265]: 030 [050]: 1001
+96: 31/0000: 25.1S 151.7E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 01/0000: 27.6S 155.8E: 275 [505]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Debbie showed little signs of development through the previous
24 hours to sunrise this morning. However in the past few hours, the long
expected rapid development appears to be taking place. Deep convection has
rapidly dveloped around the system centre, with possibly a ragged eye feature
appearing. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on an eye pattern in
IR, with a DG surround and OW eye, subtracting 0.5 for ragged eye yielded a DT
of 4.0. MET and is 5.0 and PT is 4.5. FT was based on PT as the DT was not
completely clear. SATCON has jumped dramatically over the past 6 hours from 62
knots to 90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.0 System will be upgraded
to a severe category 3.
Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of
radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite
imagery.
The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary
steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave
trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the
models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly
more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may
also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it
remains somewhat disorganised. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a
general west-southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the
Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track,
although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.
The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain
favourable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected
in an intensity forecast at above the standard rate, reinforced by the recent
fairly rapid development. This is above most objective guidance at this time.
The forecast allows for a period of rapid intensification to occur before
landfall in the favourable environment, which recent SHIPS guidance suggests is
a possibility.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
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