ben811018

存圖囉～～

krichard2011

Ernie 達成了幾乎不可能的任務
在短短的不到24小時 從一級熱帶氣旋 猛爆增強到 5級強烈熱帶氣

1. IDW27600
   
2. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
   
3. Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
4. at: 1202 UTC 07/04/2017
   
5. Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie
   
6. Identifier: 26U
   
7. Data At: 1200 UTC
   
8. Latitude: 15.8S
   
9. Longitude: 110.5E
   
10. Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
    
11. Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
    
12. Speed of Movement: 5 knots [8 km/h]
    
13. Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h]
    
14. Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h]
    
15. Central Pressure: 936 hPa
    
16. Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    
17. Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
    
18. Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
    
19. Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
    
20. Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
21. Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
22. Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
23. Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
    
24. Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    
25. Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
    
26. Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/6.5/D4.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/6HRS
    
27. Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
    
28. Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
    
29. FORECAST DATA
    
30. Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
    
31. [UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
    
32. +06:  07/1800: 16.0S 110.4E:     025 [050]:  115  [215]:  930
    
33. +12:  08/0000: 16.1S 110.1E:     040 [070]:  120  [220]:  926
    
34. +18:  08/0600: 16.2S 109.8E:     050 [095]:  115  [215]:  930
    
35. +24:  08/1200: 16.3S 109.3E:     065 [120]:  105  [195]:  940
    
36. +36:  09/0000: 16.5S 108.1E:     085 [155]:  080  [150]:  966
    
37. +48:  09/1200: 16.9S 106.5E:     105 [190]:  055  [100]:  986
    
38. +60:  10/0000: 17.5S 104.5E:     120 [225]:  040  [075]:  996
    
39. +72:  10/1200: 18.2S 102.3E:     140 [265]:  030  [060]: 1000
    
40. +96:  11/1200: 20.1S  98.8E:     185 [345]:  025  [045]: 1005
    
41. +120: 12/1200:             :              :            :     
    
42. REMARKS:
    
43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie was located using all the types of satellite
    
44. imagery, notably visible. The position has low uncertainty due to development of
    
45. an eye.
    
46. 
    
47. Dvorak Analysis: An eye pattern in EIR provides DT of 7.5 using cold medium grey
    
48. surround and a warm medium grey eye. Visible analysis also results in a 7.5 eye
    
49. pattern. Whilst this technically is breaking constraints over 24 hours, due to
    
50. the consistency of DTs ranging between 6.5 to 7.5 over the past four hours the
    
51. decision to have the system strength based on very rapid intensification due to
    
52. satellite observations in the last 6 to 9  hours was made. CIMSS ADT has been
    
53. reporting similar T numbers [between 6 and 7] with FTs also limited to 6.0 due
    
54. to constraints. NESDIS ADT lagged in transitioning to an eye pattern and
    
55. subsequently has FT numbers about 5.6. Satcon winds estimated 105 kt sustained
    
56. winds. Intensity is set at 110 knots with a small radius of max winds, though
    
57. with gales in a more extensive area in southern quadrants.
    
58. 
    
59. SSTs are 29-30C and ocean heat content is favourable.
    
60. 
    
61. CIMSS continues to show good poleward outflow and upper divergence. CIMSS shear
    
62. has further decreased in the last 6 hours to be less than 10 knots.
    
63. 
    
64. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, conditions will remain favourable with low
    
65. vertical wind shear, high moisture and warm SSTs. As a mid level ridge develops
    
66. later on Saturday and begins influencing the steering, the presence of dry air
    
67. and increasing shear should cause the system to weaken, however, gales may
    
68. persist in southern quadrants due to the pressure gradient associated with a
    
69. ridge of high pressure to the south.
    
70. 
    
71. The system is being steered towards the south due to an upper trough passing to
    
72. the south. On Saturday, a building mid level ridge will steer the system towards
    
73. the west-southwest. The majority of NWP guidance is consistent with the forecast
    
74. track.
    
75. 
    
76. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ernie is not expected to produce gales at Christmas
    
77. Island or the WA mainland.
    
78. 
    
79. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
    
80. ==
    
81. The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1930 UTC by Perth TCWC.

複製代碼

JTWC 這樣才105KT? 我也是醉了...

1. SH, 15, 2017040712,   , BEST,   0, 158S, 1104E, 105, 954, TY,  64, NEQ,   20,   30,   25,   20, 1007,  170,  10,   0,  10,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,      ERNIE, D,

複製代碼

蜜露

這個就是猛爆增強的例子。

今年南半球氣旋整體發展算平靜，這次突然來個挑戰風王的。

Meow

4月7日東南印度洋強烈熱帶氣旋Ernie正快速增強

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 017-04-07_0730Z.png

krichard2011

一點都不像是剛命名的樣子
底層非常扎實 BoM 直升 澳式C2 上看澳式C3