評級MEDUIM
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 150.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 092236Z GPM 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING A LOW
LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
100010Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N
150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
INFRARED DVORAK SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO
THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN A
091512Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE ALSO REVEALS
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM ALL
QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS)
AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32C). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE THIS CIRCULATION
IS JUST BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
