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19P.Ella 南太5月雙旋達成 掠過斐濟北方海域

查看數: 8468 評論數: 12 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2017-5-7 02:54

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 s6815711 於 2017-5-16 16:38 編輯   二級熱帶氣旋   編號:22 F ( 19 P ) 名稱:Ella   基本資料   擾動編號日期:2017 年 05 月 07 日 02 時 JTWC升格 ...

W環 發表於 2017-5-12 14:12
斐濟把最高強度下修至澳式二級
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點評

預計會進一步減弱成低壓區,甚至消散殆盡,續向西行  發表於 2017-5-14 23:45
預計會持續減弱並向西移動  發表於 2017-5-14 00:15
預計會一路向西,強度仍有變數  發表於 2017-5-13 10:08
Meow 發表於 2017-5-11 10:25
FMS這報預期36小時以後三級強烈熱帶氣旋。
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 110137 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 177.0W AT
110000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 9
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 50 KNOTS.  

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION GOOD WITH PRIMARY
BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM
STEERED WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.9 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
YIELDS DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 14.3S 178.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 14.7S 179.3W MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 14.9S 179.9E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 14.9S 179.2E MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

TTHE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ELLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800 UTC OR EARLIER.
W環 發表於 2017-5-11 09:38
JTWC上看50kts
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Meow 發表於 2017-5-9 21:46
疑似眼牆,而且現在垂直風切微弱。
20170509.1226.gpm.x.colorpct_89h_89v.19PELLA.40kts-993mb-147S-1736W.35pc.jpg
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Meow 發表於 2017-5-9 15:00
南太平洋首見5月命名雙旋,不包含移動到澳洲責任區才命名的系統。

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