u777771

jwpk9899 發表於 2017-8-11 09:04
美軍升格14W
14W FOURTEEN 170811 0000 16.7N 170.1E WPAC 30 1006

14W發展的速度太快了! 其實從中央氣象局最新的衛星雲圖(全景)來看:14W 的實力、確實已經來到這個等級.

14W未來的路徑: 就是看太平洋高壓囉

t02436

JMA直接發布GW。

熱帯低気圧
平成29年08月11日10時05分 発表

<11日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
中心位置        北緯 16度10分(16.2度)
東経 169度55分(169.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1008hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<12日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        ウェーク島近海
予報円の中心        北緯 20度00分(20.0度)
東経 166度00分(166.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 25km/h(13kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

jwpk9899

美軍升格14W
14W FOURTEEN 170811 0000 16.7N 170.1E WPAC 30 1006

u777771

未來的太平洋高壓:不曉得勢力有多強? 非常希望到了日本海域;就往北北東揚長而去

u777771

沒有想過(JTWC)直接就發佈(TCFA)!

s6815711

20Z直接發佈TCFA

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
171.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 170.9E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION ABOVE A COHESIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 101849Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AND IN A BAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ARC OF THE STORM. INVEST 90S IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF
VERY FAVORABLE (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(28-30C), AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, KEEPING THE STORM WELL WITHIN THIS
FAVORABLE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 14z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.3N 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION POCKETS OVER THE DISTURBANCE. A 100953Z
AMSU-B METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS) WITH GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 C). NO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING CONSOLIDATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.