Meow

ECMWF預報轉化後變成罕見初秋超強溫帶氣旋。

jwpk9899

JTWC評級MEDIUM

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 151.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 149.3E, APPROXIMATELY
285 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 252355Z METOP-A 89GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC
WRAPPING AROUND TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A 252311Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 19Z評級LOW

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 152.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 251036Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
EDGE OF SWATH BROAD AND ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION BEGINNING TO
FORM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT INTO A BROAD TROPICAL STORM OR MONSOON DEPRESSION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS TO LOW.