周子堯@FB

預估明天有機會被升格

ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP1520170300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.4W AT 16/0300ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   2 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MBMAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.4W AT 16/0300ZAT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 125.3WFORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7WMAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0WMAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3WMAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3WMAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3WMAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NMON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5WMAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOWMAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 125.4WNEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z$$FORECASTER ZELINSKYNNNN

霧峰追風者

NHC 18Z升格"15E",不看好強度發展，今明兩天還是有機會混個命名機會。

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112033
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017

The remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Katia have redeveloped after
reaching the Pacific Ocean a couple of days ago.  The system
maintained a mid-level circulation while transiting the high terrain
of Mexico, but had lost its surface center.  Yesterday, deep
convection began in association with the mid-level circulation and
today a well-defined surface center formed.  While it was originally
thought that the convection would be sporadic because of the
moderate vertical shear, the deep convection has instead persisted
close to the system's center during the last several hours.  Since
the system now meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
advisories are initiated as Tropical Depression Fifteen.

The depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, steered
primarily by the deep-layer ridge to its north.  The official track
forecast is a westward or west-southwestward motion at a slower
rate of forward speed during the next two days, then a turn back
toward the west or west-northwest at days 3 and 4.  This forecast
is based upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, as the
remaining guidance either doesn't know about the depression or
unrealistically intensifies it and takes it toward the north.

The system likely will not become very substantial.  The moderate
shear should continue, while the depression heads toward cool SSTs
and dry air.  The official intensity forecast shows just modest
strengthening to a low-end tropical storm in about a day, before
weakening begins.  Deep convection may cease in about three days,
marking the system's transition to a remnant low.  The intensity
forecast is based upon the LGEM/DSHIP statistical guidance as the
mesoscale dynamical models spin the depression up to near hurricane
strength, which is not plausible.  If the system does reach
tropical storm intensity - by no means assured, then it
would be named "Max", not "Katia".


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 16.4N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  12/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  12/1800Z 15.8N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  13/0600Z 15.4N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  13/1800Z 15.3N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
72H  14/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  15/1800Z 16.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea