NHC 最後一報，即將轉化。

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017

Lee is now over water colder than 20 degrees Celsius and is being
blasted by 35 kt of west-northwesterly shear, and it has not been
producing deep convection for at least the past 12 hours.  The
cyclone has therefore become post tropical, and this will be the
last advisory.  Without any deep convection, subjective and
objective Dvorak numbers have decreased, and the initial intensity
is estimated to be 45 kt.

Lee continues to accelerate northeastward with an initial motion
estimate of 050/44 kt.  Continued acceleration is expected today,
although the global model fields indicate that Lee's circulation
will open up into a trough within the next 6 to 12 hours.  A
12-hour point is provided in the official forecast for continuity's
sake, but Lee will most likely have dissipated by then.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header
FQNT21 EGRR.  These forecasts are available on the web at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 46.7N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  30/1800Z 49.9N  24.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

9月27日百慕達東南東方颶風李位處巔峰

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lee_2017-09-27_1450Z.jpg

強度升三級颶風。西側眼牆感覺比較薄。

03Z提升強度到95kt 離MH差一步了 真的覺得這隻沒實測很可惜

INIT  27/0300Z 30.0N  55.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  27/1200Z 30.5N  56.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  28/0000Z 31.6N  57.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  28/1200Z 33.4N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  29/0000Z 36.0N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  30/0000Z 43.7N  43.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

強度升二級颶風，還有小幅度增強空間，預計2天後加速北上。

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized this
evening.  The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10
degrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to
-63 degrees Celsius.  The initial intensity is increased modestly to
85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak
T-numbers.  It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-number
yields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type.

The previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluent
flow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for the
next 48 hours or so.  During this initial period, Lee could get a
little stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and the
Decay-SHIPS.  Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due to
the outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone
moves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes an
extratropical cyclone in 4 days.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of the
IVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt.  The
cyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-level
steering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-tropospheric
ridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours.  Afterward,
a combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving
out of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridge
building east of Lee should steer the hurricane gradually
northwestward and northward.  On day 3 and beyond,  Lee is forecast
to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layer
high latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned
shortwave trough.  Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolution
analysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropical
cyclone no later than day 4.  The NHC forecast track is a little
south of the previous one through 48 hours, but similar
thereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 30.0N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  26/1800Z 29.9N  53.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  27/0600Z 30.2N  55.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  27/1800Z 30.9N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  28/0600Z 32.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  29/0600Z 36.9N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  30/0600Z 44.5N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z 50.9N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

NHC加發特報，升格颶風。

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240624
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Special Advisory Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
200 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 230 AM AST...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 230 AM AST (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located
near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is currently
stationary.  A drift toward the southeast is expected to begin
later today.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 36 to 48 hours.

Lee is a small hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

速報升一級颶風，風眼開啟....