B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 128.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 230157Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC AND WEAK, SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
WITH BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN
ISLAND WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N
135.4E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FEEDER BANDS
WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15
KNOTS), AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS).
CURRENTLY GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO THE TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND ARE CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
