開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

95W 將登陸呂宋島

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2017-10-5 06:56 | 顯示全部樓層
  熱帶低壓  
編號:95 W
名稱:

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2017 10 05 06
升格熱低日期:2017 10 07 08
撤編日期  :2017 10 09 20
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) :15 m/s ( 30 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC):20 kts
海平面最低氣壓1004 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95W-INVEST-15kts-1010mb-14N-137E

20171004.2220.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14N.137E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自:JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
t02436 + 15

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 2794 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-9 11:09 | 顯示全部樓層
降評Low,準備撞進呂宋島。
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 122.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 123.9E, APPROXIMATELY
174 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 082222Z AMSU 89GHZ PARTIAL
IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY AND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE HAVING FAVORABLE TO
MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, BUT IS BEING OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR(25 TO 30 KNOTS), WITH  FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES(29
TO 30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWING
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED  TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWN GRADED TO A LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

95W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

往東繞出去了,接下來發展及路徑值得再觀察.  發表於 2017-10-9 22:46
06Z取消評級。  發表於 2017-10-9 14:02
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1964 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-10-7 20:41 | 顯示全部樓層
20171007.1150.himawari-8.ir.95W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.13.1N.125.7E.100pc.jpg 20171007.0922.f18.91pct91h91v.95W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.13.1N.125.7E.065pc.jpg

乍看下很厲害~
低層頗慘烈...

點評

alu
進入南海後,應該會跟97整合  發表於 2017-10-8 15:25
還可以啦,過了呂宋島後應該會好很多  發表於 2017-10-8 00:32
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2794 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-7 15:43 | 顯示全部樓層
評級提升到Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 130.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY
300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. A 070022Z SCATSAT PASS INDICATES A
DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC REMAINS WEAK BUT HAS IMPROVED IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT (5-15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE
LLCC IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS STRONG
WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WEAK. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (29-30 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

abpwsair.jpg

95W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif

點評

上看中度颱風70kts.970hpa.  發表於 2017-10-7 15:51
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 1964 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2017-10-7 11:58 | 顯示全部樓層
524.PNG

【日本氣象廳:95W升格為熱帶性低氣壓】
位於菲律賓東方海面的低壓系統95W,日本氣象廳已經在今天上午升格為熱帶性低氣壓,預估這兩天通過菲律賓呂宋島,下週一進入南海,因為將通過陸地且移動速度快的關係,發展暫時受到限制,要成為颱風的機會不高。

要注意的是,今明兩天從台灣南方通過時,外圍水氣將北上,加上東北風增強,迎風面的東半部及恆春半島非常容易下雨,並且有局部強降雨發生的機會,有安排活動的朋友多加注意天氣資訊。

回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 601 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

霧峰追風者|2017-10-7 11:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JMA 09時升格"熱帶低壓",接近呂宋島。
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 126E WNW SLOWLY.
17100709.png 20171007.0230.himawari-8.ircolor.95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.14N.128.1E.100pc.jpg


回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2794 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2017-10-6 14:34 | 顯示全部樓層
評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.6N 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 060048Z
METOP-A AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 100023Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 05-10 KNOT
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

95W_gefs_latest.png

vis-animated.gif

點評

上看輕度颱風35kts.1000hpa.  發表於 2017-10-7 09:40
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表