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96W 遠洋低緯 對流消長

查看數: 4675 評論數: 5 收藏 0切换到帖子模式
    組圖打開中,請稍候......
發佈時間: 2017-10-6 10:11

正文摘要:

本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2017-10-9 05:38 編輯   基本資料   編號    :96 W 擾動編號日期:2017 年 10 月 06 日 09 時 撤編日期  :2017 年 10 月 07 日 23 時 96W-INVEST-15kts-10 ...

Jimmy 發表於 2017-10-10 01:31
誰可以告訴我這顆是怎樣
第一次看到GFS模式這麼歡樂...雖然現在看無意義...但好猛喔
gfs_z850_vort_wpac_50.png




點評

這應該是下週氣象局預報會在菲國東方海面生成的巨大天氣系統。  發表於 2017-10-10 14:31
Jimmy 發表於 2017-10-9 09:43
掰了96W----確定陣亡...
abpwsair.jpg 原本16、17日的數值模式預報各大機構也都改了
ecmwf_uv850_vort_wpac_10.png

gfs_z850_vort_wpac_37.png

gem_z850_vort_wpac_35.png

連一向歡樂的CMC都把擾動改到南海去了@@
t02436 發表於 2017-10-8 15:18
降評Low
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5N 152.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY 40
NM SOUTH OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DETERIORATING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THIS TIME. A
080457Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS NO DISCERNIBLE LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY INDICATES NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND TRACK IT SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

96W_gefs_latest.png

rbtop-animated.gif
ZXC47174 發表於 2017-10-8 10:08
提升Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 152.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 79 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072322Z 89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


96w.png
Alexchow 發表於 2017-10-8 00:18
最新評估是Low

"(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.2N
153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT, BUT DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 071131Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 071131Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AND A WEST-NORTHWESTARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW."
abpwsair.jpg

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