B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12N
118.3E, APPROXIMATELY 221 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES .
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 170201Z 89GHZ AMSU AND METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH WESTERN PORTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING DEVELOPMENT AS ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NEARBY
TS 25W WILL PREVENT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM PERSISTING AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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