(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0N 132.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 151731Z SSMI
85GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS MINDANAO ISLAND. LAND INTERATION WILL PREVENT SUBSTANTIAL
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER WEST OF MINDANAO
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
JMA :低壓區。
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.0N
132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 355NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MINDANAO ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 150938Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS AN EXPOSED, WEAKLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 151221Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ISOLATED OVER THE WEST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS MINDANAO ISLAND WITH WEAK
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATER WEST OF MINDANAO
AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.